Monetary Fund - This horse is proven over the distance required and on testing conditions, which could help him today. His last win was in January at Musselburgh over 3m 110y on Soft ground. Here, he showed that he could handle all types of going relatively well and the speed of a 3m race seems to suit him well. On his most recent run at the start of February, he finished 7th in a competitive handicap hurdle race. He ran well here, although tired quickly towards the end. Overall, this is a horse with plenty of ability and if things go right for him today, I can see him challenging for an Each Way place.
Ballytober - Having only run 3 times over hurdles in his career, I feel that this horse may still be lacking in experience over this longer trip. However, his last run was over 3m and he finished second to O'Faolains Boy, having made a mistake 3 from home. He seems to like Heavy ground and the 3m mark seems the perfect trip for him. Whilst my concern is his lack of experience, he has seemed to grasp things pretty quickly, and with a few more runs under his belt, can be a force to be reckoned with against this type of opposition. Each Way prospects are almost certain for this horse today and with his current market price at 10/1, this is a perfect E/W bet for me to have.
Water Garden - Although this horse is proven over the distance, his last win was in December 2011. Since then, he has put in some respectable performances, although has never finished in the top 3 over this distance. Last time out, he finished 6th in a very competitive, staying handicap hurdle. He traveled noticeably well into the race, only to get tired over the last two. This may suggest that the trip was not ideal, although he does seem to like testing conditions. Overall, it's very difficult to determine where this horse stands in comparison to today's opposition. I don't think he has what it takes to win, and he may prefer a drop down in trip.
The Romford Pele - Now this is a horse which I have seen run on a few occasions, most notably, his impressive win at Chepstow in December. He has only raced once since then and was fairly disappointing for his standards. This was a much tougher test for him, however, and the handicapper put him well up in the weights. Whatsmore, he has never raced over 3m, so this is a big step up for him. Overall, I have always been a big fan of this horse, but whether he has the ability to defeat another set of tough opposition over a distance he has never traveled over, remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is worthy of an Each Way spot, but may not have enough in him to win.
Kayf Aramis - This horse has not won a race since 2009, although he is proven over the distance they are racing over today. His form is fairly average at best, with a 3rd on his latest run at Wetherby over 3m1f on Soft ground. This race was filled with fairly poor opposition however, and this showed in his price. He has particularly struggled with testing ground, which may play against him tomorrow. Overall, his form figures and recent performances do nothing to suggest that this horse will have much influence on the final outcome tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.
Buck Magic - Regular readers will recognize this horse as one I backed at Wincanton on the 16th February. I really liked the look of this horse when it was running over 2m6f, but it failed to reproduce the magic it has shown in earlier performances. This was mainly due to the testing conditions which he appeared to dislike. As far as the distance today is concerned, he has ran only once over 3m and finished 4th in a competitive race. Overall, I still like this horse and expect him to go well today.
Off the Ground - Hasn't won a race since February last year and his form since then has been fairly average. Last time out at Doncaster, he finished 6th over 3m and never really looked like he was on the same terms as the leaders. He has shown that he is capable, but can be frequently unreliable. Overall, there are others who are much better than this hose and I don't expect him to have any real influence on today's race.
Destroyer Deployed - Hasn't won a race since March 2012 and once again, his form looked pretty average since. Last time out at Chepstow, he finished 4th over 3m on Heavy ground, so this was a real stamina test for him. There's a suggestion that he isn't really fulfilling his potential over hurdles and whether he will achieve this today, remains to be seen. Overall, I do think this horse has the ability to win a race of this calibre, but he needs to start clocking some decent runs before he can become a serious contender.
Dream Again Boys - Proven over this distance and handles all ground conditions well. He has won his last two races, so is clearly in great form. On his last outing, however, he only beat his next rival by a nose in a fairly competitive race, and I get the impression that this wasn't as impressive as everyone makes it out to be. Before that at Ffos Las, he never looked like losing and turned the race into a procession. Overall, I do think this horse has plenty of ability, however, I'm not convinced that his wins were enough to prove he will win this comfortably today. For me, he is certainly worthy of an Each Way bet, but there are others who may have proved themselves more than this horse.
Bygones Sovereign - This horse hasn't won for just under 2 years and his latest run was his only effort over 3m, and resulted in him being pulled up. The opposition here were nothing special, although the ground was Heavy, which may have played against him. Overall, just by looking at his recent performances and form figures, I can't see why he will get anywhere near the eventual winner tomorrow.
Iron Chancellor - Hasn't won since January 2012, and the form since then is nothing special. He is a proven stayer, but was pulled up on his last run at Kempton over 3m 110y on Soft ground. He has shown glimpses of quality in the past, but there has been nothing recently to suggest, that he can make a big impression on the outcome today. I won't be having a bet.
Cuban Piece - This horse hasn't won since July 2012 and has proved to be unreliable in his performances since. He has finished 5th in his last 3 starts and they have all been against fairly moderate opposition. Looking at his rivals today, I don't think he will stand much hope of getting into the first 3, let alone win the race. I won't be having a bet.
PREDICTION - Here is a race that is separated from the decent horses and the bad horses. I like to look for value in my bets, and feel that BALLYTOBER is great value and have been over priced by the bookmakers. BUCK MAGIC and DREAM AGAIN BOYS will almost certainly get in the top 3.
My Bets:
BALLYTOBER - EACH WAY
BUCK MAGIC - EACH WAY
DREAM AGAIN BOYS - WIN
Ballytober - Having only run 3 times over hurdles in his career, I feel that this horse may still be lacking in experience over this longer trip. However, his last run was over 3m and he finished second to O'Faolains Boy, having made a mistake 3 from home. He seems to like Heavy ground and the 3m mark seems the perfect trip for him. Whilst my concern is his lack of experience, he has seemed to grasp things pretty quickly, and with a few more runs under his belt, can be a force to be reckoned with against this type of opposition. Each Way prospects are almost certain for this horse today and with his current market price at 10/1, this is a perfect E/W bet for me to have.
Water Garden - Although this horse is proven over the distance, his last win was in December 2011. Since then, he has put in some respectable performances, although has never finished in the top 3 over this distance. Last time out, he finished 6th in a very competitive, staying handicap hurdle. He traveled noticeably well into the race, only to get tired over the last two. This may suggest that the trip was not ideal, although he does seem to like testing conditions. Overall, it's very difficult to determine where this horse stands in comparison to today's opposition. I don't think he has what it takes to win, and he may prefer a drop down in trip.
The Romford Pele - Now this is a horse which I have seen run on a few occasions, most notably, his impressive win at Chepstow in December. He has only raced once since then and was fairly disappointing for his standards. This was a much tougher test for him, however, and the handicapper put him well up in the weights. Whatsmore, he has never raced over 3m, so this is a big step up for him. Overall, I have always been a big fan of this horse, but whether he has the ability to defeat another set of tough opposition over a distance he has never traveled over, remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is worthy of an Each Way spot, but may not have enough in him to win.
Kayf Aramis - This horse has not won a race since 2009, although he is proven over the distance they are racing over today. His form is fairly average at best, with a 3rd on his latest run at Wetherby over 3m1f on Soft ground. This race was filled with fairly poor opposition however, and this showed in his price. He has particularly struggled with testing ground, which may play against him tomorrow. Overall, his form figures and recent performances do nothing to suggest that this horse will have much influence on the final outcome tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.
Buck Magic - Regular readers will recognize this horse as one I backed at Wincanton on the 16th February. I really liked the look of this horse when it was running over 2m6f, but it failed to reproduce the magic it has shown in earlier performances. This was mainly due to the testing conditions which he appeared to dislike. As far as the distance today is concerned, he has ran only once over 3m and finished 4th in a competitive race. Overall, I still like this horse and expect him to go well today.
Off the Ground - Hasn't won a race since February last year and his form since then has been fairly average. Last time out at Doncaster, he finished 6th over 3m and never really looked like he was on the same terms as the leaders. He has shown that he is capable, but can be frequently unreliable. Overall, there are others who are much better than this hose and I don't expect him to have any real influence on today's race.
Destroyer Deployed - Hasn't won a race since March 2012 and once again, his form looked pretty average since. Last time out at Chepstow, he finished 4th over 3m on Heavy ground, so this was a real stamina test for him. There's a suggestion that he isn't really fulfilling his potential over hurdles and whether he will achieve this today, remains to be seen. Overall, I do think this horse has the ability to win a race of this calibre, but he needs to start clocking some decent runs before he can become a serious contender.
Dream Again Boys - Proven over this distance and handles all ground conditions well. He has won his last two races, so is clearly in great form. On his last outing, however, he only beat his next rival by a nose in a fairly competitive race, and I get the impression that this wasn't as impressive as everyone makes it out to be. Before that at Ffos Las, he never looked like losing and turned the race into a procession. Overall, I do think this horse has plenty of ability, however, I'm not convinced that his wins were enough to prove he will win this comfortably today. For me, he is certainly worthy of an Each Way bet, but there are others who may have proved themselves more than this horse.
Bygones Sovereign - This horse hasn't won for just under 2 years and his latest run was his only effort over 3m, and resulted in him being pulled up. The opposition here were nothing special, although the ground was Heavy, which may have played against him. Overall, just by looking at his recent performances and form figures, I can't see why he will get anywhere near the eventual winner tomorrow.
Iron Chancellor - Hasn't won since January 2012, and the form since then is nothing special. He is a proven stayer, but was pulled up on his last run at Kempton over 3m 110y on Soft ground. He has shown glimpses of quality in the past, but there has been nothing recently to suggest, that he can make a big impression on the outcome today. I won't be having a bet.
Cuban Piece - This horse hasn't won since July 2012 and has proved to be unreliable in his performances since. He has finished 5th in his last 3 starts and they have all been against fairly moderate opposition. Looking at his rivals today, I don't think he will stand much hope of getting into the first 3, let alone win the race. I won't be having a bet.
PREDICTION - Here is a race that is separated from the decent horses and the bad horses. I like to look for value in my bets, and feel that BALLYTOBER is great value and have been over priced by the bookmakers. BUCK MAGIC and DREAM AGAIN BOYS will almost certainly get in the top 3.
My Bets:
BALLYTOBER - EACH WAY
BUCK MAGIC - EACH WAY
DREAM AGAIN BOYS - WIN
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