Horse Racing isn't gambling..

Many people will be confused, laugh or even ignore the statement in the title. But for me, it speaks the truth.

Well, only if you do it right.

Today, I was really annoyed with myself. I had money in the bank and thought a little flutter wouldn't hurt on a meeting at Ludlo in the 3:30pm. The horse, Drussell, won by a fairly comfortable margin, but that isn't the point.

I shouldn't have won.

That was what I called in my earlier post, 'Blind Betting'. I saw the horse had good form and it looked like it would win the race perfectly from the outset. But there had been no research involved, no looking at the other runners and no way of me possibly knowing for certain that this horse was the most likely one to win. That, my friends, is gambling. Picking a horse that you like and taking a 'gamble' hoping that it will go your way.

Ryan's already making notes on
this evening's racing

What I do is slightly different.

If I look at a race, study the card hard and make sure that I haven't left out any flaws or strengths of each horse, then I am making a wise prediction on the race and what I think is most likely to win. I don't think you can call this method of research 'gambling'. I am not taking a risk like all other punters, but rather making a valid assessment of each horse and then proceeding with a bet. If it comes off, then great, I've done the work and I can be satisfied that the work I did was correct.

If I 'Blind Bet', then yes I won which does bring some satisfaction, but also means that I didn't work hard for the result. The feeling of satisfaction is not nearly as good if you continue to do that sort of betting method, in comparison to the one I chose to do.

A prime example of someone who 'Blind Bets' is my friend, Ryan, who I mentioned a few posts back. Only a few moments ago, I received a text saying 'Let's go down the bookies later?!' If you read the last post he was mentioned in, you would laugh at this statement. Ever since I have started this blog, Ryan has been engrossed in racing and when I mentioned about the possibility of him being my apprentice, he jumped at the chance!

God help him.. 

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In other news, the turn out last week was outstanding, thank you for all those that tuned in to the tips and, despite the frustrating day, people's comments on the tips and the blog itself were really pleasing. I will be back the same time on Friday evening for the tips on Saturday's racing. I am yet to decide which cards to study, but I will let you know in due course.

Furthermore, I will be providing tips the whole way through the Cheltenham Festival, bringing you up to date news and tips on racing from each card, each day.

See you on Friday

JH - 30/01/13

REVIEW: CHELTENHAM 26TH JANUARY 2013

After a early start, I set off to Cheltenham, aiming to get there 3 hours before the first race. This gives me time to walk the course, check the going and then update this new information with the research I did last night. The ground was very heavy, although firmer in some places. You don't realise how steep Cheltenham is until you actually walk the course, and is very deceiving to the human eye from afar.

Once this had been done, I managed to get a spot inside, with a good view of the course and away from the loud noises of the other punters. On that note, the crowd was fantastic at Cheltenham today and they were entertained by some thrilling racing.

Can I also say thanks for checking the blog out today, we had a fantastic hit rating today of 700 views in 24 hours. That shows people are tuning in and are interested in the news I provide!

JH - 26/01/2013

On to the first race I analysed. 

12:40pm: Here, I had two Each Way bets on Sizing Santiago and Bennys Mist, and a straight win bet on John's Spirit. I thought all 3 horses had a lot of potential and had proven in previous races that they were more than capable of beating the competition today. Sizing Santiago never really got going and I could tell that the ground was the main issue for this horse today. Had the race been run on better ground, I have no doubt that SS would have run better, and finished in a better position. Bennys Mist also run a poor race. Her previous runs indicated that he did well on his previous start at Taunton, winning the race, and it was on similar ground to today's race. An error on a fence on the back straight cost him a position and he never looked like he was going to come back from that.
John's Spirit ran a decent race and I was pleased with him for the majority of the trip. However, he had a blunder 5 from home, which really lost him momentum. He didn't seem to handle the pressure at all when coming down to the home straight and finished a low 6th.

The Winner - Vino Gregio. Funny enough, I said that this horse had no chance yesterday! Shows how much I know. He had a good race and traveled well in these conditions. Like his previous start at Ascot, he does seem to like these conditions and handles all pressure well. Noted.

VERDICT - We were really unfortunate in this race. John's Spirit and Bennys Mist both made bad mistakes which lost them vital places at important times in the race. I am not disappointed and upset that I made the wrong choices, because I still thing this was the best move. I think I underestimated the eventual winner, but I was right about Rajdhani Express, in that I didn't think he would like this change of circuit, which did play against him.



1:15pm - Here I backed Shoegazer, Bless the Wings and Bold Sir Brian, Each Way. Again, I thought we were really unlucky. Shoegazer was travelling excellently before making a crucial mistake 4 from home. I think this trip may be slightly too long for him as he was declining in speed as he made his way towards the finishing line. If he hadn't made that mistake, I think we could have had a E/W prospect on our hands. Bless the Wings and Bold Sir Brian were both early favourites for this race this morning. BSB fell at the last which didn't help things and BtW looked comfortable when chasing the leaders towards the end, but again, a drop down in trip may have been preferred.

The Winner - Katenko. A horse which I should have studied better last night. He stayed on well and looked secure in victory. I underestimated his ability on these testing conditions, and have learnt for next time.

VERDICT - I was annoyed at myself for this race. I should have paid more attention to the eventual winner who always looked like he had the ability to win the race. Although Shoegazer ran well, I think a drop down in trip for the selected horses would have been preferred.


3:35pm - Here I backed Walkon for the win and Reve De Sivola each way. Obviously, it was a shame that I didn't back the latter to win, but I did make my money back at the end of the day. I fancied Walkon, as he really impressed me last time out at Cheltenham on similar ground and over the same distance in a very competitive race. He was never travelling today, and I guess that's just racing. He did really well at Cheltenham before and this was followed up by a more than poor effort. Reve De Sivola won the race in fine form, only just beating Oscar Whisky. I thought this horse was a certainty for an E/W place and I was relived when he passed the winning post in pole position.

The Winner - Reve De Sivola. Always looked like a horse with the ability to win and did so in this competitive race. I fear that on better ground, Oscar Whisky may have performed better and may have beaten RDS, but thankfully it wasn't that day today.

VERDICT - I was happy with this race. I was right to oppose Oscar Whisky in my preview and the selection of Reve De Sivola was a sensible one. Walkon, however, was disappointing and I expected a much better race from him today.



OVERALL VERDICT - Overall, a frustrating day. One or two things went against us with crucial mistakes made and this led to a fairly disappointing day. That's not to say that next week things can change and we can get back to winning ways. The last race was a positive for sure and we should carry all those things into next week.

Thanks again for checking the blog out, we had a fantastic hit rating today of 700 views in 24 hours. That shows people are tuning in!

CHELTENHAM 3:35PM 26TH JANUARY 2013

(PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS POSTS FOR 12:40PM AND 1:15PM RACES)

Onto the third and final race I will be studying from today's Cheltenham card.


Oscar Whisky - Although he is the favorite, I don't fancy this horse to win. In March 2012 he was beaten by Smad Place by 5 lengths. This was the only time in his recent career that he failed to win, subsequently it is also the only time that he has ran over 3m. I really don't think he will stay the trip. For that reason, I am opposing him and will not have a bet on the race. I don't doubt his quality, but stamina is key for this type of race.

Reve De Sivola - I backed this horse at 9/2 when it ran at Ascot in December. It traveled fantastically that day, beating Smad Place by 14 lengths. He was also 2nd to Big Bucks at Newbury before this. Whilst this horse's form may not look as impressive as Oscar Whisky, I still feel that Reve De Sivola has enough to at least beat OW, if not win the race. Big player.

Lovcen - 4th last time out at Leicester over 2m7f on Good to Soft ground. He was 58 lengths off the lead that day, and never had a chance of winning. Before that, he was beaten at Dynaste at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground by 36 lengths. He carries no threat going into tomorrow's race.

Crack Away Jack - 2nd at Cheltenham over 2m4f to Oscar Whisky, beaten by 19 lengths. However, he has a proven that he has more stamina than OW, finishing 2nd behind Big Bucks and in front of Smad Place. However, he does like a fast surface and that will be a important factor if I am to place a bet on him tomorrow. Nevertheless, I predict Crack Away Jack to finish ahead of Oscar Whisky tomorrow.

Cross Kennon - 6th at Cheltenham last time out over 3m on Heavy ground, beaten by At Fishers Cross. He didn't really travel well as it should have done. Before that, he finished 2nd at Cheltenham, beating Lovcen by 7 lengths. No real chance of getting into the top 3.

Kauto Stone - Pulled up at Kempton on Boxing Day. Won before that at Down Royal, where he traveled strongly. His jumping is consistent and good, although I feel the competition is slightly too strong for this horse to make any significant impact tomorrow.

Knockara Beau - 3rd last time out at Kelso over 2m7f on Soft ground, although he didn't travel very well. Before that, he won at Kelso, after putting in a strong performance. Again, I think that the competition may be too strong for this horse to cause an upset tomorrow.

Walkon - 2nd at Cheltenham over 2m5f on Heavy ground. This race was very competitive and he traveled very well, despite the tricky conditions and being beaten by 11 lengths. Previously, he was also 2nd at Cheltenham in another tricky and competitive race. Big player.

Kentford Grey Lady - 3rd last time out at Sandown over 2m4f on Heavy ground. I backed this horse when it won before this run at Sandown. She traveled well and always looked like she was going to beat her opposition, despite being off the top weight. Tomorrow, the opposition is much more competitive, therefore I think she maybe slightly out of her comfort zone.


PREDICTION - There are 3 horses which I think all have a very good chance of winning the race tomorrow. These are REVE DE SIVOLA, CRACK AWAY JACK and WALKON.

Personally, I will be having a each way bet on REVE DE SIVOLA and CRACK AWAY JACK.

For the win, I am looking to back WALKON at a 8/1 shot. 

CHELTENHAM 1:15PM 26TH JANUARY 2013

(SEE PREVIOUS POST FOR 12:40PM RACE)

Onto the second race that I will be studying on the Cheltenham card.


Poquelin - Pulled up last time out at Cheltenham which was over 2m4f on Soft ground. However, this was a tough race as the competition in it was of a high quality. Previously, the horse was 4th at Ascot, although he never really looked like a threat to the leaders nor for the win. Another thing I've noticed about this horse, is that it doesn't like pressure and bearing everything in mind, I don't feel it has near enough quality to win tomorrow, nor pose a threat. I won't be having a bet.

Bold Sir Brian - Won last time out at Sandown over 3m on Soft ground, even making some minor errors along the way. Before that, it won at Carlisle very comfortably. Overall, it has won 5 out of its last 6 starts, indicating to me that this horse is very consistent, he is proven on all types of ground and has to be seriously considered. If the betting market is right, I will be taking a keen interest tomorrow.

Chance Du Roy - Fell last time out at Aintree, although at the time, he did look as good and was travelling as well as the eventual winner of the race. Before this, he was 10th at Chepstow over 2m4f. He is a proven winner and as he is low on the weights tomorrow, I can see him having a fairly promising chance of gaining a place. Player.

Quantitativeeasing - Beaten 60 lengths last time out at Cheltenham, although it was a very competitive race. As well as that, he also pulled up in his previous race, also at Cheltenham. For me, this horse is too inconsistent, and he hasn't won since December 2011. Overall, there are better runners and I won't be taking an interest in him tomorrow.

Bless The Wings - Won last time out at Newbury over 2m4 on Good to Soft ground. He is almost certain capable of being in the top handicap and needs this race to prove himself. He also won at Wetherby and looks like a horse that could feature well in races with top competitors. Overall, a horse which I will almost certain be backing tomorrow, whether it's for a win or place, I will have to see what the betting market looks like.

Katenko - Won last time out at Sandown, he relishes Heavy ground and also does well in all testing conditions. He was 2nd before that at Ascot. This was also on Heavy ground and over 3m. All depending on the weather overnight, I am yet to decide whether or not I will back this horse. If the ground is firm down to the frost, then I will oppose him as I don't feel he is good enough as others on harder ground.

Pacha Du Polder - 2nd last time out to Bold Sir Brian and was beaten by 16 lengths. He clearly looked like he had ran out of stamina by the end of the 3m trip, so this drop back may suit. He was no match for BSB that day and he is set to be beaten by him again today. Before this race, he pulled up at Aintree on Good ground over 2m4f. For me, this horse is too inconsistent and I will not be having a bet.

Our Mick - 3rd last time out at Cheltenham over 3m on Good ground. He traveled really well that day and was tracking the leaders for a lengthy period of time. Before this, he was 3rd at Newbury over 2m4f and this was a massive improvement compared to previous starts. To me, this looks like a horse who is consistent and has a lot of potential to improve. Player.

Nadiya De La Vega - Unseated last time out at Cheltenham on Heavy ground over 2m5f. Before that he was 3rd at Cheltenham in a very competitive race. This horse also won before that at Cheltenham over 2m4f on Good to Soft ground. He is a fantastic jumper when he wants to be and consistent in the majority of his races. He has to be a big player tomorrow.

Shoegazer - 2nd last time out at Chepstow over 2m3f on Heavy ground. Here, he looked like the winner before making a mistake at the last. It has the ability to handle all conditions well and won before that at Newton Abbot. For me, this horse has much more to give and if the odds are right in the betting market, I will look to have a Each Way bet. Player.

Fruit O' Rooney - 3rd last time out at Sandown over 3m on Heavy ground. Beaten by Katenko, although he did beat Tartak (see below) by just over a length. Katenko beat FOR by 20 lengths that day. He was 7th before that at Newbury in a very competitive race. Overall, he isn't good enough to beat Katenko and I think others are preferred.

Tartak - 4th last time out at Sandown over 3m on Heavy ground. Beaten by Katenko and Fruit O'Rooney. He doesn't look capable of winning a race of this calibre. Before this, we was 4th at Cheltenham in a very competitive race. For me, this horse is to inconsistent. He has good days and bad days and he is simply to hard to predict.

Quincy Des Pictons - 4th last time out at Haydock over 3m on Heavy ground. He beat Carrickboy by 40 lengths, who subsequently proceeded to beat Shoegazer. There is a debate to have here. Before that, he was 3rd at Haydock and he didn't travel that well. He is a previous winner, but lacks the experience to compete at this level.

Frontier Spirit - Won last time out at Ffos Las over 2m3f on Heavy ground. He traveled well here and at a medium weight, I am optimistic about his chances in this race. Before that he was 2nd at Fakenham when he had a clear chance of winning. For me, this horse is definitely won to keep a eye on. Each Way prospects.

Tullamore Drew - 3rd last time out at Wincanton over 2m5f on Soft ground. This was a fairly competitive race, although he was never really a serious player. Before that he was 2nd out of 5 at Newbury, but again never looked like he stood a chance of winning it. I will not consider him in my selection.



PREDICTION - There is a clear divide in this race between some excellent horses and others which don't really stand a chance at all. For me, the Each Way prospects are SHOEGAZER, BLESS THE WINGS and BOLD SIR BRIAN.
If I was looking for a horse to win the race, it would be NADIYA DE LA VEGA.

CHELTENHAM 12:40PM 26TH JANUARY 2013

This is it. My first selections ever to be produced through the internet and visible to the public. Firstly, I am fully aware that there will be very few who take my advice, seeing as I am unproved and people may not want to risk their money.

I completely understand that.

That makes me more determined than ever to prove to you that I can pick winners, with a carefully devised method.

(I left out the 12:10 as this is a race which doesn't have enough form for me to make a wise judgement)

Onto our first race....

Rajdhani Express - A Nicky Henderson trained horse who won last time out at Kempton on heavy ground over 2m 4f. He ran very well here and was an easy winner in a race where his competitors didn't take much beating. He seems to handle heavy ground very well and is currently unexposed on quicker surfaces, which it may be tomorrow. The race at Kempton was also run with a decent pace and eventually turned into a stamina test, which seems no problem for this horse. RE previously fell at Taunton when he looked like he was going to pose a serious challenge to the leaders, however, with the eventual winner staying on strongly when finishing, this is far from guaranteed. As well as this, this horse has only raced around right handed circuits, Cheltenham is left handed and this may play against him in the race. To conclude, obviously a big player who is generally consistent. I have minor doubts in some areas, but in some cases, the positives out way the negatives.


Ackertac - This horse pulled up on it's last outing at Ascot over 3m on heavy ground. However, this race was very competitive, however, and after making an error six fences from the finish, he never looked like getting back into the race. He was 2nd the race before that at Ascot and showed that he does well under pressure, he travelled well on the soft ground and gained total control of the race 2 from home. The major problem I have with this horse is that he is too inconsistent. Depending on the markets tomorrow, I would be wary of backing him.


Gullinbursti - Second last time out at Exeter over 3m on heavy ground. He only conceded defeat in the run in and after a good solid round of jumping, showed that the previous effort at Haydock was not a true indicator of his ability. However, there were only 5 runners in the race and the competition didn't seem particularly high. He is used to riding in 3m races, therefore the trip should be of no concern. He was a successful winner in the later of stages of 2011, winning 3 in a row against some very healthy competition. Aside from the effort at Haydock, this does look like a promising runner, although I have concerns that the competition may be a little too high. A player.


John's Spirit - Second last time out at Sandown over 3m 110y on Soft ground. Evidence indicates that he was unlucky not to win here, after bumping into a rival. Some early mistakes in his jumping also may have cost him, but has proven that the stamina test and trip will not be a problem for him. Previously to this run, he won at Sandown on soft ground over 2m 4f. Again, jumping was inconsistent at times, but had enough in the end to defeat his opposition. AP McCoy won on him that day, and rides him again tomorrow. An experienced jockey, like him, will be able to get the best out of this horse tomorrow and as long as he sorts out his jumping, I feel that he will be hard to beat.


Battle Group - Very inconsistent in his last four starts, finishing 11/18 in his start at Warwick over 3m 1f on soft ground. He finished 36 lengths behind the leader that day and never stood a chance of winning. Before that, he fell at the fourth fence, therefore never really indicating his true ability against the other runners. Other than that, he has never particuarly stood out in any of his other races, and I will be more surprised than anyone tomorrow, if he is anywhere near the front runners.


Vino Griego - Second last time out at Ascot to Ackertac (see above), although he was only beaten by 2 lengths, so ability wise, they are pretty similar. Again, he seems to do well under pressure, but Ackertac appeared to be too strong for VG that day. He fell before that at Ascot, although he was travelling well and was tracking the leaders before falling heavily two out. Has never won a race, and for me Ackertac doesn't seem a wise bet and as the two have a similar ability, I won't be taking a further interest in this horse.


Mcmurrough - Has won his last two starts both on Heavy ground and both over 2m 4f. His latest win was at Wetherby. This may not be a true indicator of his ability however, as he took full advantage of a mistake made by his competitors and a rise in handicap for this race may be a bit to much for him. Again at Newcastle, he recovered well from a mistake made coming down the home straight to win, although he looks best to be treated over hurdles. I don't expect him to be near the front runners tomorrow.


Sizing Santiago - Third last time out to Mister Hyde at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground. Arguably, this 3m run was a little bit too hard for him and despite being a tough horse who gave the race everything he had, it wasn't quite enough to be in pole position. This run over 2m 5 should be exactly the drop back in trip he needs. This was shown on his previous run over 2m 6f when he won against some very tough competition. He is arguably at his best on quick ground and if all this plays to him tomorrow, I can't see much going wrong for him.


Ballygarvey - Won last time out at Lingfield over 2m4f on Heavy ground, beating Good Order. He won in comfortable fashion and he seems to excel in those types of conditions. He was 6th before that at Taunton and both times his jumping has been a little weak in places. He is going up against some tough opposition tomorrow and he cannot afford for his jumping to be slack. I feel a lack of experience over fences will prove to be his downfall and although he is set to win races in the future, a bit more experience against some weaker opposition will help in the long term.


Theatrical Star - A consistent front runner although hasn't won a race since October 2011. Was second last time out to Buddy Bolero at Exeter over 2m3f. Here, he had the most experience of his rivals and whilst his jumping was good, my fear is that he tends to jump to the right and as this is a left handed course for tomorrow's race, he could lose time and ground to his competitors. However, he was only beaten by a length that day and as his form is consistent against some tough opposition, I wouldn't rule out a confident run by this horse tomorrow.


Bennys Mist - Won last time out at Taunotn over 2m7f on Heavy ground, beating Kellystown Lad. He does well on left handed tracks, although he seemed to be tiring when he reached the last that day. This small drop in trip should suit the horse and if he carries this form into this race, he looks a force to be reckoned with, having beaten his nearest rival by 22 lengths. Previously at Newbury, it looked as though he had clinched victory, although certain circumstances prevented that from happening. Overall, I am very impressed with this horse and as long as the market is healthy, I will almost certainly be having a bet.


Renard D'Irlande - Fourth last time out at Doncaster over 2m3f on Good to Soft ground. The pace of the race was quick that day and that may have resulted in his down fall. He never made an impression on the leaders and therefore, was never really in the race to win it. At Wincanton he finished third and was travelling well over 2m5f before making a blunder at the 12th fence, ending his chances of the win. Overall, jumping is not as consistent as I would like and relies on a slow paced race.

Sew on Target  - Won last time out at Chepstow over 2m on Heavy ground. Jumping was excellent that day and the horse travelled well and coped fantastically with the conditions. He is now open to progress and may be a threat tomorrow, although he is the top weight out of all the runners. Previously, he had fallen at Taunton over the same distance on Soft ground. However, he never looked like the winning horse and was already on the decline when falling. Overall, a horse which looks like it has a lot of promise, but maybe more experience will do it good before a race of this calibre.



PREDICTION - For me, there are some excellent runners in this race and there are others who stand less of a chance. I will be playing safe in this race and looking for the horses with long odds and have the best chance of winning. In this case, it would be SIZING SANTIAGO and BENNYS MIST, who I will be taking a strong interest in tomorrow. I will also consider JOHN'S SPIRIT, as a horse with a decent track record ridden by McCoy will surely be a test for the competitors.
As for the favorite, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, he looks like a decent horse, but the odds are too shorter price for me to have a serious bet.

I am looking for the horses who have the most potential and can give me the best return. 

A New Logo for 'Where's My Edge?'

Some fantastic efforts have gone into designing and making the logos for the website really stand out. Ben Yarrow has to take all the credit for these superb designs and they do need some slight work, but other than that I am very impressed.


Let me know which one is your favorite!

Design 1

Design 2

Design 3

How I Make A Selection.. (Cheltenham 26th Jan 2013)

I'm writing just as the clock is ticking over into the early hours of Friday morning. The Cheltenham inspection for Saturday is just a few hours away and I'm just hoping, that it will be given the go ahead.

Having one last glance at my notes before
placing my stake at Ladbrokes.
(Ascot Dec '12)

Just a reminder that all posts regarding Saturday's racing will be posted tomorrow evening (Friday) at around 11:30pm.

As I am attending Cheltenham on Saturday, I will be there in good time to test the ground, and then refer back to the notes just to double check the selections have been made as accurate as possible.

                                                                                           *
Going into the meeting at Cheltenham is naturally, going to be a very difficult and challenging one to predict or analyse. This is mainly due, to the quality of horses appearing. The majority, if not all, of the horses, will have excellent records and it is down to me to find those extra flaws or strengths in each horse and make a accurate and wise judgement on who is most likely to win.

It is completely different from a normal race.

A normal race is likely to consist of some good runners and runners who are just there to get a run around or don't have a realistic chance of winning. I can then identify the elite horses in that race, as well as the ones that may have a chance, if the ground is to their liking, and concentrate purely on these. At Cheltenham on Saturday, all of the horses will be at the top of their game and there purely to win.

Therefore, I will have to look at each horse in it's last few runs, identify where they struggled and where they excelled and then make a note of that, ready for Saturday. The selection process varies completely, depending on the number of runners per race, their background, etc.

I've learnt to take nothing for granted in racing. Therefore, if a horse has excellent form, I am likely to spend more time researching and analyzing this horse than I am an average runner. That way I can understand why it ran well, what caused it to run well and will the same factors play into it's hands on Saturday. If I cannot find any loop holes in a horses' form, then that's a good bet to have, providing the odds are healthy enough for me to have a bet.

That's all from me now, and there won't be another post until Friday evening with the selections for Cheltenham.


JH -24/01/2013

Stunned, simply stunned.

As Day One on the blog closes, I have checked the current number of hits we have received since the first post. All I will say is the response has been overwhelming, and I would like to thank each and every one of you for your kind comments and compliments in regards to the way that I write and what opinions I can bring to the racing world.

The leading BBC Horse Racing Correspondent, Cornelius Lysaght, has kindly spread the word about the blog via Twitter, creating widespread interest in the things I have written and what I have to say in the future. It is a great honor to have Cornelius's approval of the blog and the fact that he knew of my late grandfather, Richard Holder, was also a touching moment.

It has been less than 24 hours since I wrote the first word on the very first post, and I already feel that we could take this blog in a very promising direction.

The main purpose of this blog is to provide you with relevant information in regards to horse racing in a light hearted and enjoyable way.

Once again, thank you for your generous comments.

JH - 22/01/2013

When I go Racing...

I very rarely used to go racing. Nor did I ever watch it at home. The only way I would ever see a horse run would be down at Ladbrokes in the center of Clevedon. I would sit there, drinking more cans of Coke than I can count, and just watch racing. On that note, if you ever want a free drink, keep going to the bookmakers time and time again. After a while, they remember you and start chatting. Before you know it, you're invited to their Christmas Party, they offer you some of their chips they bought around the corner and handing out more Coke than McDonalds.

Believe me, the ladies down at Ladbrokes see me more often than their husbands.

Although, that's for another time.

Anyway...

Up until November, I never used to go racing. I either couldn't find the time or I simply couldn't afford the petrol. Now, I go twice a month, on a Saturday. Without fail.

Firstly, I went to Taunton on my 19th Birthday with my friend who I've known since the age of 5, Ryan Reynolds. The man had never stepped foot in a bookies, let alone been to a racecouse. This was going to be an experience. He dressed as if he was going to Royal Ascot and when we got to Taunton, on a cold Thursday morning with barely enough people to fill the Bristol Rovers stadium, we didn't feel the day was going our way.

And it wasn't until the last race, where A P McCoy won on Dormouse (9/2), leaving us both screaming, in what was now, an empty paddock. Ryan had  a tenner left and therefore opted out of betting McCoy, whereas I had the courage to sick £20 down and left with a big smile on my face.

Since then, I have been to Chepstow, Ascot, Cheltenham and Taunton again. Each time with another good friend, Jonny Stubbs. Jonny would be essentially my right hand man when it came to racing. On the long journeys, he would take out my notes and breeze through the Racing Post, scribbling down bits of key information we would need later on that day.

Racing hasn't been kind to Jonny, I must admit. He would rather be down the casino playing BlackJack against 80 year old Chinese men. Personally, not my cup of tea.

Another companion of mine, dear Milo Crockford. Milo is a man with little or no sense of urgency. His knowledge of racing is limited and my thoughts were confirmed when Milo bravely went up to a bookmaker at Ascot and asked if he could have 34p each way on a horse.

Need I say more.

Thanks for tuning in again guys.

JH - 22/01/2013

What a response!

Not even a day into the blog and already we've hit 250 hits. Bearing in mind that this not me refreshing the page multiple times a minute, it's a pretty good turnout.

Friends on Twitter (@jamesholderr) have doubted my knowledge and wisdom when it comes to predicting outcomes in horse racing. Therefore, I have said to one or two that I will refund all losing bets within a month of them reading the advice. I am confident in my ability to produce results, and have more knowledge than the 'regular punter' down the bookies.

The programme I use, allows me to access information about every horse which is forbidden to the normal punter. When I go into a bookmakers and place a bet, I am automatically 1 step ahead of the rest of the pack, as I know what ground a horse prefers, does it have enough stamina to last the trip, does it prefer a right or left handed circuit and has it won at this circuit before.

All these factors help me make a solid judgement on what horse I feel is most likely to win.

Of course, tipsters around the country have time to watch races over and over again, looking at the way a horse gallops, time each race to see if it ran well or not....

But this is not my day job.

I make a decision based on the information provided. And that's it.

I fear that, due to weather conditions, the majority of racing will be off this week. I am off to Cheltenham at the weekend to walk the course with my dad, who is due to race in the St Patrick's Derby at the Cheltenham Festival this March, in aid of Cancer Research.

I will work until the early hours of the morning to ensure all preparations are made for the following day's racing. It will include an analysis of each runner and what I think it's capabilities are in the race. 

I think that's all from me now. Check back regularly for further updates.


JH - 22/01/2013

How I started betting on horses?

Fortunately for me, I was brought up in the house hold of a professional punter, which should have meant that I understood the way sensible betting works and not to lose all of my money in one outing to a bookmakers. Needless to say, that didn't happen. The first time I walked into a bookmakers was just after my 18th birthday, a small Ladbrokes branch in my town, Clevedon. Obviously, I got asked for identification and once that was out of the way, I picked up a betting slip, found the favourite for the next race ( a odds on shot at 10/11) and stuck down a few twenty pound notes. Now at this point, I had a small knowledge of the way odds work and how that correlated with the likleyhood of the horse winning. Therefore, a 10/11 shot seemed like a pretty reliable option and I was pretty confident I would get my money back as well as a few extra pounds in my pocket. What happened next, should have made me stop betting altogether. I lost every penny I had on me and I couldn't understand why. The 10/11 horse had lost by a long way, 20 lengths in fact.

Betting became my life and I would always be looking at prices online and sticking a fiver down on the horse that was either the favourite or I liked the look of it's form. Those were simply the two factors in my decision making. If a horse was 10/1 and its form was 55579PU5, then I would completely disregard it and it would not enter my final selection. It wasn't until a long time after that I started to understand how thick I had been. A horse's form shown in the Racing Post gives the average punter only a very small indication of where the horse is likely to finish this time around. Obviously with horses like Frankel and Kauto Star, the form is spot on and it would only take someone with half a brain cell to watch one of those races and conclude that those horses were stars.

That only applies to the very minority however. A horse with poor form should never be disregarded until researched thoroughly beforehand. It may have finished way down the field in it's last 5 starts, but how competitve were those races? They may have included the very top horses in the country and for me a horse that finishes 7th in a race with very competitve opposition is a much better option to one that has finished 1st against very poor opposition. The majority of novice punters or people with a very low IQ will fall into this trap and will therefore, never make any money from betting.

Take my advice and you will reduce the amount of losers you back.


JH 

The First Post of Many

Afternoon All.

Welcome to 'Where's My Edge?', the blogging page where I give my views, opinions and experiences of betting horses. I will be mostly active on the weekend, when I will give my full dedication in providing the most accurate and up to date analysis of horse racing in the UK.

Blog posts will be on every Friday and Saturday evening by midnight. They will include a prediction and an analysis of each horse from the races I choose to have a bet in. If you have any success with any of the tips, please feel free to leave comments as I would love to hear how people are getting on.

Thanks again and I hope you enjoy this page.

James