NEWBURY TIPS - SATURDAY 23RD MARCH 2013

2:20

Prediction - A tough race with all runners fairly competitive in their own right. There is one horse that does stand out from the rest, VIOLIN DAVIS. This horse has performed brilliantly over it's last few runs and I expect it to go well again in the race. I cannot see it being out of the first 3, and at odds of 5/1 and more, I think this is a brilliant bet to have.

2:55

Prediction - A fairly similar race to the previous one, in that all runners are at the top of their game. There are two here which I feel have been underestimated by the Bookmakers. These include MICKIE and  HIDDEN IDENTITY. They are both at prices which I feel don't represent their true ability and for that reason, are brilliant bets to have.

3:30

Prediction - I am amazed that Handy Andy is favorite for this one. For me, I cannot see past LOCH BA. Ridden by AP McCoy, this horse has been outstanding in his recent runs and for me, he has to be in the first 3, if not win. Other preferences go for BALLYOLIVER, who once again has been underestimated by the bookmakers in it's market price.

Best of luck and I will be back with the review on Sunday.

**CHELTENHAM NOTICE**

Due to unforeseen circumstances, I will not be posting tips or advice for the final day of the Cheltenham Festival.

Apologies for any inconvenience caused. I will be back with the review of the week on Sunday.

Cheltenham Festival - Day Three Tips

1:30PM - Jewson's Novices Chase

Prediction - A very tough race to call, with all the runners being competitive. I thought there were some small edges in the betting, although DYNASTE looks certain to become victorious. The Each Way selections I have chosen are AUPCHARLIE and CAPTAIN CONAN, who have shown fantastic form coming into the race, beating some tough opposition in the process and they look certain to place tomorrow. MOTOLOF could be the danger, if everything falls his way.



3:20PM - Ladbrokes World Hurdle

I expect Reve De Sivola (pictured) to go well today

Prediction - This is, prehaps, the race of the Festival for me. All of the horses are at the top of their game and it looks certain to be a fantastic display. There has been a lot of talk about who is better; Oscar Whisky or Reve De Sivola. I sat down and looked at the form tonight with right hand man Jonny Stubbs, (@jonnyjstubbs) and we both went with different options. Jonny went with Oscar Whisky, a clear proven stayer who has more than enough ability to win this race. I, on the other hand, went for REVE DE SIVOLA. I've backed this horse twice in succession now, and he has failed to disappoint me on both occasions. Whilst it was close between the pair at Cheltenham last time out, as long as Richard Johnson keeps him ahead of Oscar Whisky, I can't see Reve De Sivola losing this one. Other preference for an Each Way place, may be GET ME OUT OF HERE. This horse doesn't look as good as the leading pair, but I still think he should put in a good show and finish in the top 3.



4:00PM - Bryne Group Plate

Prediction - Another competitive race, where there have been a few overpriced horses in my opinion. VINO GREGIO, performed brilliantly when I saw him run at Cheltenham. The course and distance appeared to be no problem for this horse and he has been massively underestimated in the race. The opposition he had to fend off last time at Cheltenham were not weak by any means and he is certainly one to have a small Each Way bet on. My other preference is for HUNT BALL, ridden by Nick Scholefield, he is a talented horse to say the least. He defied the odds last year by landing the win and I expect him to do his best to retain his crown this year. Nick, a star jockey in my eyes, knows exactly how to ride this horse and I would be very surprised if he wasn't in the thick of things come the end of the race.


5:15PM - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

Prediction - With this race being over 3m 7f, it is a grueling test of stamina with only the very best likely to finish in style. Here, there are 3 which I think are good bets to have in this race, with 2 being the most likely to win and the third bet being good value for money. Firstly, I have selected ARABELLA BOY and BOSTONS ANGEL to fight it out for the win. These two have met previously and were 1st and 2nd in their respective race. The distance between the two was only 3/4 of a length so they look to be closely matched. Both are in good form and I expect them to handle the conditions no problem tomorrow and chase the win. The other selection in this race, is LEAC AN SAIL. This horse has been impressive over the distance required and has fended off some tough opposition in the past. He is regarded by the Bookmakers, as a 'long shot' at 25/1, but the form and performances show that we cannot disregard this horse.

Cheltenham Festival - Day Two Tips

1:30PM - National Hunt Chase

Prediction - This race is usually a favorite among punters on Day Two of the Festival, and this year's line up looks likely to produce a fascinating finale. BACK IN FOCUS is likely to impress here, although he has not run over 4m, so it remains to be seen whether or not he can last the trip in the race. He has to run an extra mile than he is used to do today, so I have reservations about whether or not he is worth backing. If you wanted to have a bet, I would suggest a straight win, as his market price is too short for an Each Way bet. If you are looking for value in this race, then GODSMEJUDGE and EMPEROR'S CHOICE are fantastic bets to have. Godsmejudge has been fairly consistent recently and looks likely to stay the trip. Emperor's Choice is also a progressive stayer and with odds of 20/1 at some bookmakers, he is worth an Each Way bet.


2:05PM - Neptune Investment Novices Hurdle 

Prediction - A very competitive race with all of the runners performing exceptionally well against recent opposition. PONT ALEXANDRE, ridden by Ruby Walsh, is likely to be in the thick of things tomorrow. However, he is too short a price for me to have a serious bet. Due to the competitive nature of the race, I will be having only one bet here. This is a Each Way bet on CHATTERBOX. This horse has comfortably beaten My Tent or Yours in the past, another talented hurdler seen in Day One of the festival, and has a fantastic track record of wins and places in his career. For me, his price is perfect for an Each Way bet, but this is likely to drop before the race, so it would be best to get your bets on as early as possible!


2:40PM - RSA Chase

Unioniste looks to be a major player in the
2:40 - RSA Chase.

Prediction - This race is fairly interesting. The favorite, BOSTON BOB, has a brilliant track record of wins, but failed to reproduce the same form at the Festival last year in the only 3m race of his career. I rewatched the race and he didn't seem to quicken up towards the finish. This time around, he will be running an extra 110y and I have serious doubts about whether or not he will stay this extended trip. For that reason, I have decided to have 3 bets in this race. These include GOULANES, HOUBLON DES OBEAUX and UNIONISTE, with the latter a straight win bet.


4:00PM - Coral Cup

Prediction - An extremely competitive race, with all runners standing out in their own way. With 28 runners, this is a great race to have an Each Way bet in. There are 3 runners here, which I think are good value and are likely to stand out in the race. Firstly, we have MASTER OF THE SEA, who has won all 4 of his handicaps and looks to be improving quickly, despite his rise of 12 pounds. He is on top form and with odds of 16/1, he is a fantastic Each Way bet to have. The final two, ABBEY LANE and BLACK THUNDER, are also key bets to have. The former, ridden by Ruby Walsh, is expected to like this trip and after winning a competitive 2m handicap on his last run, I expect him to go well today. Black Thunder is also one to watch. Trained by Paul Nicholls, we should not underestimate this horse. He finished well at Haydock last time out, and he could go one further today.

Cheltenham Festival: Day One Tips

2:05PM - Supreme Novices Hurdle

Prediction - This race is full of worthy contenders and it does look like My Tent or Yours and Jezki stand out from the rest, as far as betting is concerned. However, I have decided to look for value in the prices and I have chosen two horses which I feel are the best bets to have in the race. My first selection is UN ATOUT, a French Bred horse who has never lost over hurdles. His form is in itself, remarkable and he is sure to give the favorite something to worry about in the race. He has performed exceptionally well on Heavy ground, beating his opposition by 19 lengths. In both his runs, his finishing times have been extrodinary and well in front of his rivals. I expect him to go well today and give My Tent or Yours a good run for it's money. The other selection, is CHELTENIAN, who has gone very well in his last few starts. I watched some of his races back and his win last year at Cheltenham in the Champion Bumper was fantastic. He has fended off a number of tough opposition in the past and was unlucky to finish second last time out at Doncaster. At a price of 20/1 or more, he is great value and I would expect him to finish well in the race.



3:20PM - JLT Speciality Handicap Chase

I will be tweeting (@WheresMyEdge) throughout
the day.

Prediction - A race with 24 runners in is sure to produce some interesting outcomes. Whilst Our Mick is favorite, I'm not to keen to back him, despite his impressive form. There are a number here I do like, but I will give 4 selections for you to choose from. MERRY KING and LOCH BA have done brilliantly over the last year, with some impressive performances in testing conditions and against tough rivals. They both have the ability to win tomorrow and I expect both of them to challenge for the eventual win. MONKERTY TUNKERTY and PETE THE FEAT are both fantastic value. They have also turned in some fantastic performances, with both of them happy to go on Soft ground if needs be. Their market prices suggest that they are long shots, but Cheltenham punters should know all too well, that at the Festival, anything can happen. All of these 4 selections, are great value and I expect them to be in the thick of things in the race.



4:00PM - Stan James Champion Hurdle

Prediction - One of the most anticipated races of the Festival and what a great show it is likely to be. For me, I cannot see pass ZARKANDAR who has been flawless in a number of his runs leading up to this. Hurricane Fly has been equally as impressive, although we saw a similar pattern last year and then when it all mattered at the Festival, he had nothing to give. If the odds were attractive, it may also be worth placing a small bet on ROCK ON RUBY who has impressed numerous times over the year and whilst he has been beaten by the likes of Zarkander and Hurricane Fly in the past, he usually delivers when asked of him. Therefore, I expect these two selections to be thoroughly involved towards the end of the race.



5:45PM - Glenfarclas Handicap Chase

Prediction - With this race being over 3m 7f, it is a grueling test of stamina with only the very best likely to finish in style. Here, there are 3 which I think are good bets to have in this race, with 2 being the most likely to win and the third bet being good value for money. Firstly, I have selected ARABELLA BOY and BOSTONS ANGEL to fight it out for the win. These two have met previously and were 1st and 2nd in their respective race. The distance between the two was only 3/4 of a length so they look to be closely matched. Both are in good form and I expect them to handle the conditions no problem tomorrow and chase the win. The other selection in this race, is LEAC AN SAIL. This horse has been impressive over the distance required and has fended off some tough opposition in the past. He is regarded by the Bookmakers, as a 'long shot' at 25/1, but the form and performances show that we cannot disregard this horse.


I wish you all the best of luck and I will be tweeting (@WheresMyEdge) throughout the day, so make sure you follow me!

JH

Cheltenham Preview: The Festival Is Upon Us

And so it begins.

A week full of rivalries, competition, misery and delight. 

It is a week like no other. 

It is of course... the Cheltenham Festival.

I will be at Cheltenham on Thursday

The jump season has been building up to this very moment, where all of the greats will battle it out to be victorious in some of the most respected races in the world. Firstly, there is the Jump Trainer's Championship. Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson are neck and neck and it is fair to say, that this week will decide who either retains the crown or snatches it. Currently, Henderson is favorite to win this year's title, with Nicholls still winning going into the Festival. I, personally, cannot choose between them. The loss of Darlan will have damaged Henderson's chances, and with the likes of Zarkandar in Nicholls's yard and the unpredictable nature of the Festival, it is sure to be very tight come the end of the week.

From a punter's point of view, this week is the most competitive in the whole of the racing calendar. The number of horses competing in each race ensures that the odds available for each horse are wide open, and gives the punter that extra edge on his side. The long shots are also key in the Cheltenham Festival. There is not a year that goes by, without some 33/1 winner winning the race, causing despair among the majority, and yet delight among the minority.

During this week, I will be posting tips everyday for the racing at Cheltenham. With 3 fantastic weeks, I have taken all that confidence in my betting into this week and it is important to remember that if I select a 33/1 or 66/1 shot, you must not disregard it. Too many gamblers have it in their heads that these horses simply cannot win due to their big prices. That is absolute nonsense. If you back the horses EXACTLY how I say, evidence over the last 3 weeks show, that you will make a profit.

Tuesday's tips for action at Cheltenham will be on the blog this evening.

For quick updates, please follow me on Twitter: @WheresMyEdge

Thanks and Good luck for the week!


JH

CHEPSTOW 4:50PM SATURDAY 9TH MARCH 2012

See previous posts for earlier racing

at Chepstow

I WILL BE AT CHEPSTOW TODAY, SO PLEASE COME AND SAY HELLO IF YOU'RE THERE TOO.

Tribal Dance - This horse has proved to be too unreliable in his past performances, pulling up twice in his last three performances. He last won in November 2011, and since then, the form has looked fairly average. That's not to say he has put in some pleasing performances during summer 2012. Overall, I think he is a bit too inconsistent for me to take a serious interest in this horse.

Bravo Bravo - The form looks fairly decent here, with this horse not finishing outside the top 4 since October 2012. He won at Chepstow in November against poor opposition and his other pleasing performances have also come against fairly moderate opposition. Overall, I will have to look at the other runners first before i can truly understand if this horse is a serious contender

Bellasguardo - This horse has only ever run 5 times in its career and has never finished outside the top 4. On his latest run at Kempton at the start of February, he finished 4th in a competitive handicap hurdle. His other performances have also come against fairly moderate opposition and with the soft ground likely to be in his favour today, he could be good value for an Each Way bet

Super Colider - This horse's recent performances at Leicester and Ludlow have done nothing to suggest he can be a competitive contender in today's race. These were against a low quality opposition and the last time he won was in January 2011. Overall, I cannot find a way that this horse can have an influence on the final outcome today.

Homer Run - Not to be confused with David Pipes "Home Run", this horse was clearly in great form in 2012. However  on his last run in June, he ran very poorly against some tough opposition and we have not seen him since. This lengthy absence is likely to play against him today, and I feel he may need a few more recent runs under his belt before he can really challenge for a win again.

Maxdelas - This horse hasn't won a race since his first outing in December 2010. Since then, he has failed to make a decent impression on any of his races and has always been regarded as a long shot. The quality of this race may be too much for him again today and therefore, I will not be taking any further interest

Douchkeerek - This horse has only raced 4 times over hurdles in his career, and has once again, failed to have any significant impact on the final outcomes. He finished 7th last time out at Kempton in a competitive handicap hurdle, although he ended up being 43 lengths behind the eventual winner, Overall, I don't feel this horse can raise his game for today's test, so I wont be taking any further interest.

Roses Legend - This horse hasn't run since September 2012, so there are already alarm bells going off that he may lack race fitness. He was fairly consistent in his performances back then, however, putting in some pleasing runs against some competitive opposition. Overall, I am unlikely to back this horse today, as I feel he will need a few more runs to get back to peak fitness.

Arch Event - An Ex Flat horse, he has only jumped over hurdles 5 times in his career, and has never produced any interesting or decent performances in any of these. His best form has come over the flat and after failing to make any sort of impression over hurdles, a return to the stalls would surely be best for him.

Southway Queen - This horse finished second last time out in a fairly ordinary mares handicap hurdle, and was only beaten by a shoulder by the eventual winner. She does seem to like Soft ground and with her opposition today being weak, she does look to have a good chance.

Nicene Creed - This horse has proved to be fairly unreliable and inconsistent on a regular basis, never particularly having a significant influence on the final outcome of the race. These have also come against moderate opposition, so the form looks to be solid. Overall, her unreliability is key today, and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Decent Lord - This horse's best performances have come over a much shorter trip than this today, which is likely to be of a concern. On his most recent outing  he finished 108 lengths behind the eventual winner, whilst finishing similar distances behind in his other races. For me, he clearly lacks the ability to win and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Feisty Lass - This horse has only run twice over hurdles in her career and has always been considered a long shot in pretty much all of her starts. She is coming up against weak opposition today, but I still have doubts about her ability and for that reason, I won't be taking my interest further.

Some Secret - He returned to action in January after not racing since 2011 and got off to a pleasing start, finishing 3rd at Exeter on Heavy ground over 2m7f. He is used to running over longer distances than today's trip, but is proven on testing conditions. He pulled up on his last run but this was over 3m, and I think today's test will suit. Each Way prospects.

PREDICTION - Value for money is key here. SOUTHWAY QUEEN looks to almost certainly be in the frame and I will be placing an Each Way bet on her today. Other preferences are for BELLOSGUARDO and SOME SECRET.

CHEPSTOW 3:40PM SATURDAY 9TH MARCH 2013

See previous posts for 

1:55 and 3:05 at Chepstow.

As De Fer - Whilst this horse has a good number of wins under his belt, he hasn't run since February 2012. That alone suggests that he may not be at peak fitness which is a major concern for me. I think he needs a few more runs before he can become a real contender and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Current Event - Again, this horse has a healthy track record of wins, although he was pulled up on his latest outing at Wincanton over 2m5f on Soft ground. For me, I would only ever consider having a bet if the market price was right, 6/1 or above.

Niceonefrankie - This horse is very consistent and has had a number of recent runs, so fitness should be no problem. He hasn't finished outside the top 3 since November 2012, so he is clearly in great form. Clearly, there are Each Way prospects here, but we have to bear in mind he hasn't won for over a year. Each Way potential.

Hells Bay - This horse hasn't won since January 2011 and since then he has been unreliable in his performances and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Triptico - Just by looking at the form figures this horse is clearly in the form of his life. Whilst his last run at Doncaster over 3m resulted in him being pulled up, this clearly was too far for him to travel. This drop in trip should suit and he does go well on Soft ground. If the value is there, I will be taking  a keen interest in him today.

Cadoudalas - Judging the form figures and analyzing his recent performances this horse is very hard to understand. He seems to tire quickly and coming down to the final stages, this may be crucial against tough opposition. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Oldrick - The form is nothing special to look at, as he was poor against some average opposition. As well as this, he appears to dislike the Soft ground also. Taking all of this into account, I will not be having a bet.

Kilcrea Asla - Much like the last horse, I am not particularly encouraged by this form. He hasn't run since October and I feel that this may be to much for him tomorrow. I won't be having a bet. 

PREDICTION - As there are much less running in this race, I have decided that my two selections will be CURRENT EVENT and TRIPTICO. I do fancy the latter to go for the win, with CURRENT EVENT placing. 

CHEPSTOW 3:05PM SATURDAY 9TH MARCH 2013

See previous post for the 

1:55 at Chepstow

Chargen - N/R

Duke of Monmouth - This horse is proven over 3m and has performed well in highly competitive races. He was unlucky when he fell at the 2nd at Warwick in November against good opposition. His consistent form is one to be admired and he has no problem dealing with the soft ground. Overall I predict this horse to go well today and will certainly be having an Each Way bet.

Fourovakind - A novice compared to his opposition having only run over hurdles twice in his life. He is unproven over 3m but looks likely to stay the trip having put in some fairly pleasing performances over 2m4f and 2m4f 110y. Overall, given his lack of experience, I would only look to have a small Each Way bet if the market price was right.

Mauricetheathlete - I would be very surprised if this horse isn't 1st or 2nd favourite today having run well at Chepstow in January. However, having watched the race back, I think his ability has been overestimated. There are others who have much better appeal and at predicted short odds, I don't see any value in backing him.

Sarando - The form figures here indicate that this horse is fairly inconsistent. Whilst on his last run he performed well against tough opposition, there isn't sufficient evidence that he can beat some of his tougher rivals today. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Radmores Revenge - This horse is proven over 3m, although his performances over this distance have been fairly average indicating a drop in trip should suit. With tough opposition today, I fear he will find things too tough. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Joseph Mercer - N/R

Red Hot Poker - The last time this horse ran over 3m was in August 2009, which he coincidentally won. Since then he has performed poorly against moderate opposition. Today seems like a big ask for him and I feel that race against weaker opposition will suit him better. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Radio Nowhere - This horse isn't proven over 3m and has only raced over hurdles 3 times in his career. Last time out, he lost to Fourovakind by 8 lengths and it looks like the former will beat him again today. More exposure over this trip will benefit and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Sail and Return - N/R

Always Waining - Much like Sail and Return, this horse is proven over 3m, but has not put in the performances to go with it. He is also best run on firm ground which he is unlikely to get today. His best results have come over 2m5f and this is where I believe he should stay. I won't be having a bet.

Invicta Lake - This horse is never raced over 3m, although is fairly consistent in his performances. However, a slightly increased trip at Fakenham indicated that he is likely to struggle with the trip today. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.

William Hogarth - The form figures clearly show that he is currently struggling. Whilst proven over 3m, his performances have done nothing to suggest that he will perform well today. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Mystic Appeal - Firstly, this horse hasn't appeared in the top since March last year and since then he has struggled to get back on form. The form figures alone suggest that this horse will have little influence on the final outcome today.

Cardigan Island - This horse is used to running over fences, with only one start over hurdles. He has won over 3m in the past, but it is important to note that he hasn't run since October 2012. I fear that this lengthy absence won't play in his favour today and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Samingarry - An interesting horse with his last run being his only run over 3m. He impressed that day, finishing 3rd against some competitive opposition. He is likely to go well again today, although the ability of other runners in the race may prevent him from winning. Definite Each Way prospects.

PREDICTION - There are two horses which I believe have a great chance in the race today. SAMINGARRY and DUKE OF MONMOUTH are the two which I think that have been overestimated by the bookmakers. They are very good value and I expect them to go well today.

CHEPSTOW 1:55PM SATURDAY 9TH MARCH 2013

A Heart Beats On - This horse is not proven over 3m and his only pleasing performance was a 4th place at Towcester over 2m on Good ground, which was over the All Weather track. One thing to note about him, is that he has never run over hurdles before, so straight away, I have some concerns. It will be a big ask for him to travel 3m, a stamina test, over hurdles which are completely new to him. On this basis, I have decided to refrain from having a bet.

Big Jer - On his only start over hurdles and across the 3m distance, he finished 3rd in a competitive race at Taunton. Whilst this may suggest that he is capable of staying the trip, I would have liked to have seen him in a few more runs to prove himself before today. The opposition he faced were of a competitive nature, suggesting that the form is solid. Overall, he looks to be a likely player, although his inexperience at this level may let him down. Each Way prospects.

Cheat the Cheater - I like this horse, as he is proven over 3m on Heavy ground, so stamina should be no issue for today's trip. Last time out at Chepstow, he finished 2nd in a very competitive race, suggesting that he likes it here and with his recent, proven form record, I expect him to be in the thick of things today.

Lower Hope Dandy - This horse is not proven over the 3m mark and has only run once over hurdles, which was in December. He finished 9th that day against some fairly moderate opposition. I can't really see him having a big influence on the race, and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Lucky Sun - This horse is proven over 3m, but has put in some fairly poor performances in some of these. Overall, his form over hurdles is poor, with his best career performance a 3rd place in December 2012. I am unlikely to back this horse today, as he has proved himself to be unreliable and the form looks to be too weak.

Master Todd - This horse has ran only twice in his career, both times finishing in the top 3. He isn't proven over 3m, with the furthest distance he has traveled being 2m 1f. He stayed on well in that race at Wincanton, indicating that he still has more in him. Whilst 3m is unknown territory, I think there are others too weak here and with pleasing performances in the past, I expect him to go well today.

Missing the Craic - This horse has never finished about 10th and never traveled above 2m5f in his career. He has only run once over hurdles and with the form figures looking poor, I won't be having a bet today.

Moorlands Mist - This horse is not proven over 3m, although was 2nd last time out at Chepstow. He stayed on well, which should indicate that 3m isn't much of a step up for him. However, there are others that are preferred here and I won't be having a bet.

Nuttin Fancy - This horse is proven over 3m, is fairly consistent and he seems to like it here at Chepstow. His last run at Ffos Las was a disappointment, although he had taken a lengthy break. On the basis of the form looking solid, he is almost certainly one to watch today. Each Way prospects.

Perfect Candidate - His only run over hurdles in February was over 3m, so he is proven over this distance. Judging by his performance here, he likes firmer ground, although that's not to say, he performed well against some tough opposition. If the market price is right, it might be worth an Each Way bet.

Regal Presence - This horse is not proven over 3m and the form doesn't look particularly solid. He finished 10th last time out, facing moderate opposition. On the basis that there are some better here today, I won't be having a bet.

Silver Commander - This horse is not proven over 3m, with the furthest distance he has traveled being 2m3f. He is fairly inconsistent and on his last outing, he was beaten by Master Todd by 4 lengths. With his lack of experience over this level, I have decided not to have a bet today.

Sir Benfro - This horse is not proven over 3m and is fairly inconsistent in his performances. He came 6th in a fairly competitive race at Ffos Las on the 6th March, but with no wins or place positions over hurdles, I won't be having a bet today.

Upton Oaks - This horse is not proven over 3m and never raced over hurdles. Therefore, I cannot have a bet on this basis.

Valley Lad - This horse is proven over 3m, with his best result finishing 2nd as Ffos Las in November 2012. He seems to like the Soft ground, but preference is for Heavy. Very consistent in his performances which is pleasing, but for me, I would just like to see a bit more evidence that he can run over 3m on a consistent basis. Once again, if the market price is right, he could be a good value Each Way bet.


PREDICTION - I like a few horses that are running today. Once again, I am looking for horses that have been underestimated by the bookmakers in their market price. Therefore, I have chosen MASTER TODD, BIG JER and VALLEY LAD as my selections for the first race at Chepstow today. All 3 have run very consistently, and I can see them all going well today. CHEAT THE CHEATER is one to watch, although his market price at 4/1 suggests that he is probably priced accurately, and I can't find any edge in backing him.

Looking To The Cheltenham Festival: The Pinnacle of Racing

In less than a week, the anticipation that has been building for months on end, will finally be released and millions will watch as legends and failures are made in front of our very eyes.

The Cheltenham Festival, iconic and well known by all punters, is something that every Horse Racing follower adores and savors. It is the World Cup, European Championship and FA Cup all merged into one week. We see the very best here, battling against each other in an attempt to earn their respective crowns. As I look to next week, it is clear to see that the competition is higher than ever and the competitive, aggressive spirit between trainers is sure to be at an all time high.

With horses such as Sprinter Sacre on show this year, it is easy to forget the beauty and true talent of these animals, whilst we all run around frantically, trying to place our bets. Whilst the gambling side of this sport intensifies the drama and sets all pulses racing as the runners make their way into the home straight for the final time, it is important to sit back and remember that we are watching the very top athletes participate here.

Betting wise, it is going to be a very interesting week. All participants will be at the top of their game, so trying to find an edge will be difficult at times. There will be moments where we get things wrong and there will be times when we land a touch, but we must remember that whether we win, or lose on the week, that we don't go home angry or delighted. You may have had the best or worst betting week of your life, but never give up. This is a marathon, and I can promise you, that whilst you're with me, following my tips, you will make a profit. We are up massively at the moment, but this can change in an instant. Follow my advice for Cheltenham and you will have a good week. I can promise you that.

Cheltenham Festival 2012

I'm very lucky to be traveling to Cheltenham on St Patrick's Day (Thursday) as my father, Mark Holder (@markholder22), looks to compete in the last race of the day, the St Patrick's Derby. He has worked enormously hard to get fit, lose the weight required and to stand a chance of being competitive in the race. I am one of 3 children, and I think I speak for all of us when I say, that he has been a huge inspiration to all of us. His competitive and driven side is one to truly admire and he has raised well over £15,000 for Cancer Research UK in the process. If you would like to donate to this cause, then please click the following link: www.justgiving.com/mark-holder

Other than that, Cheltenham looks to be a busy week for us here at 'Where's My Edge?' Rather than give you Saturday's tips at the end of the week, I have decided to work the blog as follows:

Monday - No Tips
Tuesday Morning - Tips for Tuesday's Racing at Cheltenham
Wednesday Morning - Tips for Wednesday's Racing at Cheltenham
Thursday Morning - Tips for Thursday's Racing at Cheltenham
Friday Morning - Tips for Friday's Racing at Cheltenham
Saturday - No Tips
Sunday - Cheltenham Week Review


Once again, to remind everyone, I will be at Chepstow this Saturday, so all tips for racing on the Chepstow card will be uploaded here on Saturday morning.

JH

A Review Of The Last 2 Weeks for 'Where's My Edge?'

What a few weeks it's been for 'Where's My Edge?'

After a miserable first week for the blog, I made sure that my analysis would be more in depth than ever and I would look at every possible angle in a race possible to create the most likely outcome. And thankfully, it's paid off..

Firstly, I would like to thank Cornelius Lysaght, leading BBC Horse Racing Correspondent, and Emma Spencer, Channel 4 Racing Presenter, for their kind words and enthusiasm about the blog. Thanks to these two pundits, the word continues to spread about 'Where's My Edge?' and our client base continues to grow day in, day out.

Saturday 23rd February was a fantastic day, and we ensured that all clients who had followed our tips precisely how we said, had a healthy return on their investment. There was one bet which I forgot to put up on the blog at the time, which was a 7/1 Double including, Safran De Cotte and Irish Saint, a Paul Nicholls trained horse. Overall, I was exceptionally pleased with how the day went and the comments I received after the day's racing, were very pleasant and satisfying.

Like previously mentioned I don't dwell on each day's events, no matter now successful they are. So, Saturday 2nd March was a new betting day for me, although I was keen to carry the momentum we gained the previous Saturday, into this week.

And what a day it was!

The day started brilliantly, with Buck Magic (7/1) winning in the 2:05 at Newbury and Monetary Fund (10/1) finished 3rd in the same race. I had backed Buck Magic in his previous start at Wincanton, and whilst he was fairly poor that day, I think the ground went against him and on a firmer ground like Newbury, I always felt he was in with every chance. Monetary Fund also really impressed me. With an SP of 10/1, clearly the Bookmakers and Punters thought that he was a long shot, when in actual fact, he kept on well at the end of the race and was very close to 2nd place.
The other tip in that race, Ballytober, was unfortunate to fall at the second last. The horse was traveling really well up until this point and if he hadn't fell, I feel I could have tipped the top 3 finishers. But that's racing.

The 2:40 was slightly disappointing with Desperate Dex never traveling as well as I thought he would do. Neither did Mortimers Cross or Sona Sasta, so that race was a complete failure in my eyes and I have to go back and look at where I went wrong and how I can fix that in the future.

The 3:15 was much better. Although the favorite, Sporting Boy, never looked like winning the race 3 from home due to his lengthy absence, Meganisi (14/1) traveled really well and made it home in top spot. Having backed and tipped him each way, this was a fantastic result and I was delighted with the comments we received later on that evening.,

So, we have had a brilliant 2 weeks.

I will be heading off to Chepstow this Saturday for a day's racing with companion, Jonny Stubbs (@jonnyjstubbs). Therefore, I will be focusing on this card and will look to bring you all the latest news from the course via my Twitter page (@WheresMyEdge).

JH

NEWBURY 3:15PM SATURDAY 2ND MARCH 2013

See previous posts for earlier tips on 

racing at Newbury.

Knight in Purple - This horse hasn't raced over hurdles since June 2012, although his form was respectable at the time. His last win was in May 2012 at Wetherby over 2m110y on Good ground. This was a modest handicap, run at a strong pace and the front two came right away from the rest at the end. Previous to that, he put in some decent performances in very competitive races. Overall, however, due to his absence, I cannot predict how he will go today, therefore I won't be having a bet.

Newbury Racecourse

The Betchworth Kid - Before his last run on 9th February, where he finished 11th at Newbury, this horse hadn't jumped over hurdles since December 2011. His comeback was against some very tough opposition, so the form looks solid. Overall, I feel that he belongs on the flat as this is where is best results have come. His absence over hurdles won't help him much either.

Princely Player - This horse last won in May 2012 and up until October 2012, his form was very impressive. Since then, he has slightly declined in performance, finishing last against some tough opponents. Overall, I feel this drop in trip will be ideal for him and if he can get back to his best, he is in with every chance today.

Tango De Juiley - Before his last run at Ascot in early February, this horse hadn't run for over a year. He finished 8th in a race filled with competitive opposition after pulling hard and giving himself no hope of contending for the win. In the past, he has done much better over the distance that he is required to run today, which could be a positive. Overall, I feel that this horse needs a few more runs to regain full fitness before he can become a serious contender.

Sporting Boy - He has won 4 out of his last 5 starts so is clearly in great form. He hasn't raced since November, however, so he may need this run to get back into the swing of things. Whilst the handicapper has put him in the weights, I feel that the horse is still in contention for an Each Way place, if not the win. 

All the Aces - He last won in December 2011, and since then his form has been fairly average. He didn't finish in the top 10 for the whole season in 2012. This Nicky Henderson horse is sure to attract some of the punter's attention, but I just cannot see him having a big influence on the outcome today.

Meganisi - This horse last won in November and his form is much more respectable than others in this race. The distance he is running today is his ideal trip and looks to be his advantage against the others. His poor, recent runs have come on Heavy ground, so a return to firmer ground will also play into his hands. Overall, I feel that this horse has plenty of ability, and with a return to his best trip and preferred ground, I can see him going well today.

Sonoran Sands - This horse has not run since April 2012, so my immediate reaction is that he may need a few more runs under his belt before he can be in contention for the win. Before his break, he won two fairly competitive races and is ideally suited by faster ground. Overall, this horse has shown glimpses of quality in the past, although I think he may need a few more runs to regain peak fitness.

A Bridge Too Far - After a very successful year in 2011, his form has got progressively worse. He hasn't appeared in the top 3 since December 2011 and the last time he jumped over hurdles was in February last year. For this reason, I have no idea how he is going to go today, but judging by his past form, I doubt he will be in the loop.

Meetings Man - This horse was second to Sporting Boy in November, beaten by 8 lengths. He has been busy on the flat for the majority of his career and only made a comeback to hurdles in October. Whilst I think he will be beaten by Sporting Boy again today, he does have ability and Each Way prospects, at a good market price, is likely for him today.

Turn Over Sivola - A pleasing performance by this horse when he finished 3rd in January at Kempton. I feel he has the potential to improve on faster ground and with this likely to be the case today, I expect him to go well today. He is clearly a big player and may be a tough opponent for Sporting Boy.

City of Freedom - He has put in some very decent performances in the past , with a 3rd at Musselburgh on the 13th February. This horse clearly has talent, but I think there are others who just edge him, as his last win is dated back to November 2011. Overall, he has ability, but I don't think it will be enough for the win today.

The Pier - His last win was in January 2011 and since then, he has proved to be very unreliable and some of his performances have been fairly average. He finished 12th last time out at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap race and I feel that there are others with much more ability.

Zafranger - A distant outsider in the race and there is nothing more to say other than that there are much better horses running today, and for that reason, I don't see him making any sort of impact on the race.

PREDICTION - There is a clear gap between the elite and the average here. There are some horses which I have completely disregarded and others that I think there is good enough value to have a bet. Here, I feel that MEETINGS MAN is massively overpriced by the book makers and I feel he is a sensible choice for a small Each Way Bet. Other selections include SPORTING BOY and MEGANISI, who I feel have a excellent chance of going for the win today.

My Bets:

MEETINGS MAN - Each Way

SPORTING BOY - Each Way

MEGANISI - Each Way

NEWBURY 2:40PM SATURDAY 2ND MARCH 2013

See previous post for 2:05pm at Newbury.

Hey Big Spender - His last win was in January 2012 and since then has proved extremely unreliable in his performances. He is a proven stayer and is more than capable of completing this tough stamina test. On his last run, he finished 5th at Warwick in a decent, competitive race. Overall, this horse is totally out of form and I don't expect him to make any real influence on the race today. I won't be having a bet.

Michel De Bon - This horse has a number of wins under his belt and has delivered some decent performances with it. However, his last win was in April 2012 and on his last two starts, he has been pulled up twice. Both of these have happened on testing ground, and with today's going scheduled to be Good, I expect him to go much better and if he is back to his best, then an Each Way bet seems wise.

Idarah - This horse has not won since November 2012 and has not appeared in the top 3 since. On his last run, the horse was pulled up at Ascot over 3m on Soft ground. He was never traveling that day and never seemed on the same terms as the eventual winner. Overall, the horse has been out of form for quite some time and against opposition like this, I have little hope for this horse in a race of this calibre.

Tartak - It has been just over 2 years since this horse last won, and since then it's form has been barely average. He hasn't finished in the top 3 since January 2011, and his starting prices have indicated that he is an outsider in the majority of his races. Overall, his form figures and recent performances have indicated that whilst he is a good stayer, his ability may not be enough to beat opposition of this calibre today.

Fortification - His last win came in February 2012 and hasn't finished in the top 3 since. On his last run, he finished 4th out of 5 runners at Sandown on Soft ground over 3m5f. It is obvious that this horse is completely out of form and I don't see today's race as a revivial. Overall, there are others that give much more appeal and I don't see this horse having much of an influence on today's outcome.

Sona Sasta - His last win was in December 2012 at Chepstow over 3m on Heavy ground. This was a high class staying handicap, so the form looks fairly solid. On his last run at the start of January and unseated the rider 3 from home. However, he weakened 5 out, suggesting that the 3m5f may have been a bit too far for him. This drop in trip should suit and with the ground to is liking tomorrow, I expect this horse to be in the thick of it come the end.

Mortimers Cross - This horse last won in December at Kelso over 4m on Soft ground, so this trip should be no problem for him. This was a fairly competitive race, so the form does look valid. On his last run, he finished 5th at Ffos Las over 3m1f on Heavy ground. Whilst he is a good, proven stayer, his performance here was thoroughly disappointing and he needs to raise his game if he is in with a chance tomorrow. Overall, this horse has the ability, so if the price in the market is right, then this is worth an Each Way bet.

Desperate Dex - This horse hasn't been out of the top 2 since March 2012, and as is he a proven stayer, this horse is clearly in the form of his life. On his last run, he finished 2nd in a highly competitive race at Wincanton over 3m1f on Heavy ground. Overall, I really like this horse and feel that it has much more ability than the majority of his opposition today, therefore, I will back this horse for the win.

Posh Bird - This horse hasn't won since January 2012, and has been fairly poor in his last two starts, finishing 9th and 8th respectively. He is a good, proven stayer and I feel that he may need further than this trip today, to achieve the best result possible, as his best performances have come over 3m6f and 4m. Overall, I don't think this horse has enough in him to beat the leading opposition today.

PREDICTION - I really like the look of some here, particularly SONA SASTA, MORTIMERS CROSS and DESPERATE DEX. I think these horses are at a much higher price than they should be, so therefore, I think they are all a wise bet. I will bet as follows:

My Bets:

DESPERATE DEX - Win

SONA SASTA - Each Way

MORTIMERS CROSS - Each Way

NEWBURY 2:05PM SATURDAY 2ND MARCH 2013

Monetary Fund - This horse is proven over the distance required and on testing conditions, which could help him today. His last win was in January at Musselburgh over 3m 110y on Soft ground. Here, he showed that he could handle all types of going relatively well and the speed of a 3m race seems to suit him well. On his most recent run at the start of February, he finished 7th in a competitive handicap hurdle race. He ran well here, although tired quickly towards the end. Overall, this is a horse with plenty of ability and if things go right for him today, I can see him challenging for an Each Way place.

Ballytober - Having only run 3 times over hurdles in his career, I feel that this horse may still be lacking in experience over this longer trip. However, his last run was over 3m and he finished second to O'Faolains Boy, having made a mistake 3 from home. He seems to like Heavy ground and the 3m mark seems the perfect trip for him. Whilst my concern is his lack of experience, he has seemed to grasp things pretty quickly, and with a few more runs under his belt, can be a force to be reckoned with against this type of opposition. Each Way prospects are almost certain for this horse today and with his current market price at 10/1, this is a perfect E/W bet for me to have.

Water Garden - Although this horse is proven over the distance, his last win was in December 2011. Since then, he has put in some respectable performances, although has never finished in the top 3 over this distance. Last time out, he finished 6th in a very competitive, staying handicap hurdle. He traveled noticeably well into the race, only to get tired over the last two. This may suggest that the trip was not ideal, although he does seem to like testing conditions. Overall, it's very difficult to determine where this horse stands in comparison to today's opposition. I don't think he has what it takes to win, and he may prefer a drop down in trip.

The Romford Pele - Now this is a horse which I have seen run on a few occasions, most notably, his impressive win at Chepstow in December. He has only raced once since then and was fairly disappointing for his standards. This was a much tougher test for him, however, and the handicapper put him well up in the weights. Whatsmore, he has never raced over 3m, so this is a big step up for him. Overall, I have always been a big fan of this horse, but whether he has the ability to defeat another set of tough opposition over a distance he has never traveled over, remains to be seen. My gut feeling is that he is worthy of an Each Way spot, but may not have enough in him to win.

Kayf Aramis - This horse has not won a race since 2009, although he is proven over the distance they are racing over today. His form is fairly average at best, with a 3rd on his latest run at Wetherby over 3m1f on Soft ground. This race was filled with fairly poor opposition however, and this showed in his price. He has particularly struggled with testing ground, which may play against him tomorrow. Overall, his form figures and recent performances do nothing to suggest that this horse will have much influence on the final outcome tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.

Buck Magic - Regular readers will recognize this horse as one I backed at Wincanton on the 16th February. I really liked the look of this horse when it was running over 2m6f, but it failed to reproduce the magic it has shown in earlier performances. This was mainly due to the testing conditions which he appeared to dislike. As far as the distance today is concerned, he has ran only once over 3m and finished 4th in a competitive race. Overall, I still like this horse and expect him to go well today.

Off the Ground - Hasn't won a race since February last year and his form since then has been fairly average. Last time out at Doncaster, he finished 6th over 3m and never really looked like he was on the same terms as the leaders. He has shown that he is capable, but can be frequently unreliable. Overall, there are others who are much better than this hose and I don't expect him to have any real influence on today's race.

Destroyer Deployed - Hasn't won a race since March 2012 and once again, his form looked pretty average since. Last time out at Chepstow, he finished 4th over 3m on Heavy ground, so this was a real stamina test for him. There's a suggestion that he isn't really fulfilling his potential over hurdles and whether he will achieve this today, remains to be seen. Overall, I do think this horse has the ability to win a race of this calibre, but he needs to start clocking some decent runs before he can become a serious contender.

Dream Again Boys - Proven over this distance and handles all ground conditions well. He has won his last two races, so is clearly in great form. On his last outing, however, he only beat his next rival by a nose in a fairly competitive race, and I get the impression that this wasn't as impressive as everyone makes it out to be. Before that at Ffos Las, he never looked like losing and turned the race into a procession. Overall, I do think this horse has plenty of ability, however, I'm not convinced that his wins were enough to prove he will win this comfortably today. For me, he is certainly worthy of an Each Way bet, but there are others who may have proved themselves more than this horse.

Bygones Sovereign - This horse hasn't won for just under 2 years and his latest run was his only effort over 3m, and resulted in him being pulled up. The opposition here were nothing special, although the ground was Heavy, which may have played against him. Overall, just by looking at his recent performances and form figures, I can't see why he will get anywhere near the eventual winner tomorrow.

Iron Chancellor - Hasn't won since January 2012, and the form since then is nothing special. He is a proven stayer, but was pulled up on his last run at Kempton over 3m 110y on Soft ground. He has shown glimpses of quality in the past, but there has been nothing recently to suggest, that he can make a big impression on the outcome today. I won't be having a bet.

Cuban Piece - This horse hasn't won since July 2012 and has proved to be unreliable in his performances since. He has finished 5th in his last 3 starts and they have all been against fairly moderate opposition. Looking at his rivals today, I don't think he will stand much hope of getting into the first 3, let alone win the race. I won't be having a bet.


PREDICTION - Here is a race that is separated from the decent horses and the bad horses. I like to look for value in my bets, and feel that BALLYTOBER is great value and have been over priced by the bookmakers. BUCK MAGIC and DREAM AGAIN BOYS will almost certainly get in the top 3.

My Bets:

BALLYTOBER - EACH WAY
BUCK MAGIC - EACH WAY 
DREAM AGAIN BOYS - WIN