Saturday, 11 January 2014
Monday, 9 December 2013
Back To Blogging..
As the busy Christmas period is coming up and the Jump racing season really starts to kick off, I thought it would best to start the blog back up again and give you some of my thoughts on certain races etc. I won't be posting any tips or advice as such, although there may be some suggestions which I make which you may choose to take or ignore at this time.
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| Cheltenham Festival 2013 |
The season so far as been mixed for me, including some results. The betting side has produced some fantastic results, but has also led me to make some crucial mistakes which have resulted in me damaging my overall profit return. For new readers, I think it is wise to say this is not a website where you will find tips/advice. This blogging page is purely a way to express my views on racing and what I think of the busy period starting from now and finishing early May. There are some readers and followers who have asked me what my favorite tracks are and which ones I am most successful at. I think my least successful track is Fontwell. Don't ask me why; but that place has produced some horrors for me in the past and I don't understand why. Normally, I can understand why the bet went wrong and where I can amend certain things for the future. Fontwell, on the other hand, makes it difficult for me to understand where I went wrong. I don't know why; but I'm working on making that track more successful. My most successful track is between Chepstow and Cheltenham; although the Festival this year was slightly frustrating. As Chepstow is my local track, I tend to go there more frequently and am familiar with the layout and what horses may be best suited to way the track is set out.
Another topic I always get asked about is about my form study and how I come to the conclusions I get to. It is a mixture between the use of sectional timings, previous form and what a horse is best suited to. This could be from the going of the ground to their preference of a track, the layout of the circuit (flat or a mixture of flat and hills). All of these details will hopefully generate a conclusion of the race and what I think represents the best value.
I will be back this weekend with a preview of racing at Cheltenham on Saturday, so be sure to tune in for that. This will be up on Friday evening.
If you would like to check out any of my previous posts, I welcome you to use the Navigation side bar on the right of the page.
I would also like to remind you that we have a Facebook page which I invite you to 'Like and Share' with your friends to try and boost the amount of traffic we get on the website: www.facebook.com/wheresmyedge
Friday, 26 April 2013
Sandown 27th April 2013
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Sandown 2:40PM
I had a really good look at this race and whilst the favorite in Sanctuaire looks a promising bet, I am struggling to find any value in backing him.
For me, the selection here is Oiseau De Nuit, as he has beaten the vast majority of opposition in the past and looks to go well again in the race. He has had no issue in the past beating tough opposition and goes well on all types of ground. At a price of around 7/1 he looks a wise Each Way bet to have in this race.
Sandown 3:50PM
You simply have to have a bet in this race. At Bookmakers such as William Hill and Ladbrokes, they are offering 1/4 of the odds for the first 4 places, so an Each Way bet is certain for us here. As its the Bet365 Gold Cup chase, there are many high quality runners in the race and the gruelling distance of 3m5f is a long way and the vast majority of the horses competing have not run over this distance, so it's almost impossible to assume that they will stay the trip.
Therefore, I have looked at the horses which are proven over this distance and who I feel can make a good impression on the final result. Whilst disappointing in the Grand National, I have always been a fan of Balthazar King, who will stay the trip without question and at a price of 14/1 or higher, is worthy of a Each Way bet. He also is keen on decent ground, which is whats most likely for the race.
The other selection in the race is Well Refreshed. After watching his last race back, it's clear he stayed on really well when winning at Haydock over 3m4f. This was also over Heavy ground which would have added further strain to the horse's stamina. At a price of 8/1, he is worthy of an Each Way bet, but I wouldn't be surprised if he won the race.
Sunday, 21 April 2013
WINCANTON TIPS - SUNDAY 21ST APRIL 2013
2:10PM
This really is a wide open race. There are some runners who I feel, don't stand much of a chance based on their recent form, whilst there are a few who have produced decent results in the past and could go strongly today. For me, I have chosen KINGS ROAD at 5/1 and OSMOSIA at 10/1.
King's Road has some cracking recent form, winning his last 2 out of 3 outings in handicap hurdle races. Whilst they may have come against weaker opposition that he is likely to face today, he is clearly in top form and an Each Way place is almost certainly on the cards.
Osmosia is also one that is in the form of it's life. Having a number of wins under its belt against some moderate opposition, I can see it doing well today. My only concern, is that it hasn't run since November 2012, suggesting fitness concerns. There are others who are alot more fresh than her, but the price of 10/1 is too good to turn down, and I will be having a small Each Way bet on this horse.
KINGS ROAD - EACH WAY
OSMOSIA - EACH WAY
3:10PM
Whilst there seems to be a clear established favorite in this race, King Edmund, I have decided that there is probably no value in backing it as it's true odds are almost identical to that of the market price. Instead, I have gone for Aidan Coleman's ride, NORBUNGA at 5/1. This horse has good form on all types of ground, but is at his best on Good ground. He is fairly consistent in his performances and he clearly has guts and determination when finishing always in the top half of the field against some tough opposition. I will look to back him Each Way today, as I feel he will almost certainly get into the top 3.
NORBUNGA - EACH WAY
3:40PM
Having watched LOWER HOPE DANDY's last run at Cheltenham back, it looks a fairly convincing run against some tough opposition. Connections with the horse have decided to run only a few days after this race, ensuring that the handicapper doesn't penalize it. Therefore, it's easy to see why this horse is 6/4 favorite. There probably is value in backing him to win. Other than that, I really like the look of HATTERS RIVER at 9/1. Brendan Powell rides this one today and his consistency against some tough opposition says to me that he will go well today. At a big price, there is some huge value in backing this one today.
LOWER HOPE DANDY - WIN
HATTERS RIVER - EACH WAY
5:10PM
A small race with huge talent. The runners here have all been capable in the past of winning decent races and it was very hard to pick one which I thought stood out. However, I have come to the conclusion that THE BIG FREEZE, will take this one and win it comfortably. The danger, is most likely to come in the form of
ROCKY BENDER, who is also in great form and I can see these two going close in the race today.
THE BIG FREEZE - WIN
ROCKY BENDER - EACH WAY
This really is a wide open race. There are some runners who I feel, don't stand much of a chance based on their recent form, whilst there are a few who have produced decent results in the past and could go strongly today. For me, I have chosen KINGS ROAD at 5/1 and OSMOSIA at 10/1.
King's Road has some cracking recent form, winning his last 2 out of 3 outings in handicap hurdle races. Whilst they may have come against weaker opposition that he is likely to face today, he is clearly in top form and an Each Way place is almost certainly on the cards.
Osmosia is also one that is in the form of it's life. Having a number of wins under its belt against some moderate opposition, I can see it doing well today. My only concern, is that it hasn't run since November 2012, suggesting fitness concerns. There are others who are alot more fresh than her, but the price of 10/1 is too good to turn down, and I will be having a small Each Way bet on this horse.
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| It's Me Vs The Bookmakers again today. |
KINGS ROAD - EACH WAY
OSMOSIA - EACH WAY
3:10PM
Whilst there seems to be a clear established favorite in this race, King Edmund, I have decided that there is probably no value in backing it as it's true odds are almost identical to that of the market price. Instead, I have gone for Aidan Coleman's ride, NORBUNGA at 5/1. This horse has good form on all types of ground, but is at his best on Good ground. He is fairly consistent in his performances and he clearly has guts and determination when finishing always in the top half of the field against some tough opposition. I will look to back him Each Way today, as I feel he will almost certainly get into the top 3.
NORBUNGA - EACH WAY
3:40PM
Having watched LOWER HOPE DANDY's last run at Cheltenham back, it looks a fairly convincing run against some tough opposition. Connections with the horse have decided to run only a few days after this race, ensuring that the handicapper doesn't penalize it. Therefore, it's easy to see why this horse is 6/4 favorite. There probably is value in backing him to win. Other than that, I really like the look of HATTERS RIVER at 9/1. Brendan Powell rides this one today and his consistency against some tough opposition says to me that he will go well today. At a big price, there is some huge value in backing this one today.
LOWER HOPE DANDY - WIN
HATTERS RIVER - EACH WAY
5:10PM
A small race with huge talent. The runners here have all been capable in the past of winning decent races and it was very hard to pick one which I thought stood out. However, I have come to the conclusion that THE BIG FREEZE, will take this one and win it comfortably. The danger, is most likely to come in the form of
ROCKY BENDER, who is also in great form and I can see these two going close in the race today.
THE BIG FREEZE - WIN
ROCKY BENDER - EACH WAY
Friday, 19 April 2013
** Tips moved to Saturday night**
For this week only, I will be previewing
Sunday's racing rather than Saturday.
Please check here on Sunday Morning
for the preview on Racing at
Wincanton.
Thanks,
James
Saturday, 13 April 2013
STRATFORD TIPS - SATURDAY 13TH APRIL 2013
3:05PM
Prediction - A fairly competitive race, with a few runners looking interesting from the form figures. One that stuck out almost immediately is MIDNIGHT SAIL. I tipped and backed him when he won in brilliant style at Kempton, although his last run at Newbury was a big disappointment for me. After watching the race back, he was traveling really well for the majority of the race, although a significant blunder at the fifth last was enough to put him out of the race. As well as this, another Each Way fancy is THAT'S THE DEAL. He goes well on Soft ground and was very impressive when he won at Fakenham, his finishing time being 6.5 seconds than the preceding novice chase.
MIDNIGHT SAIL - WIN
THAT'S THE DEAL - EACH WAY
3:40PM
Prediction - This is a race which was fairly hard to predict. There is a clear favorite here in SWIFT LORD, ridden by Daryl Jacob. Whilst he may not be at peak fitness, he finished 3rd last time out at Kempton and stayed on well, closing on the leaders at a rapid pace. With fairly weak opposition here today, I can see him almost certainly being in the first 3, however, his market price is too short for me to back Each Way. Therefore, I will be looking to back him for the win. Another horse to watch out for, is ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST. He was 4th in a close contest at Ludlow last time out and was a good second before that at Southwell against some fairly competitive opposition. Whilst he hasn't won a race since 2011, he is on good form and can make it happen today against weaker opposition.
SWIFT LORD - WIN
ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST - EACH WAY
4:15PM
Prediction - The race of the day in my opinion. I really like the look of CLARET CLOAK, who has shown glimpses of class with impressive wins at Newbury and Sandown in the past. He performed well on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival in an extremely competitive handicap hurdle finishing 16th. I rate this performance much more than most people. I will be looking for him to go for the win today. Other preferences are for ROCKY ELSOM and DREAMBROOK LADY.
CLARET CLOAK - WIN
ROCKY ELSOM - EACH WAY
DREAMBROOK LADY - EACH WAY
4:50PM
Prediction - A poor race with not many who have performed well in the past. MASTER CARDOR VISA is one that will almost certainly be there or thereabouts today. He has put in some pleasing performances against moderate opposition and the trip should be of no concern. The other preference is for ASHMOLIAN. The bookmakers have opposed this horse, although I believe the trip should be no problem and whilst he fell at Plumpton last time out, he likes this sort of ground and at a big price, is worth a small Each Way bet.
MASTER CARDOR VISA - WIN
ASHMOLIAN - EACH WAY
Prediction - A fairly competitive race, with a few runners looking interesting from the form figures. One that stuck out almost immediately is MIDNIGHT SAIL. I tipped and backed him when he won in brilliant style at Kempton, although his last run at Newbury was a big disappointment for me. After watching the race back, he was traveling really well for the majority of the race, although a significant blunder at the fifth last was enough to put him out of the race. As well as this, another Each Way fancy is THAT'S THE DEAL. He goes well on Soft ground and was very impressive when he won at Fakenham, his finishing time being 6.5 seconds than the preceding novice chase.
MIDNIGHT SAIL - WIN
THAT'S THE DEAL - EACH WAY
3:40PM
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| I will be looking to get back on form at Stratford today. |
Prediction - This is a race which was fairly hard to predict. There is a clear favorite here in SWIFT LORD, ridden by Daryl Jacob. Whilst he may not be at peak fitness, he finished 3rd last time out at Kempton and stayed on well, closing on the leaders at a rapid pace. With fairly weak opposition here today, I can see him almost certainly being in the first 3, however, his market price is too short for me to back Each Way. Therefore, I will be looking to back him for the win. Another horse to watch out for, is ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST. He was 4th in a close contest at Ludlow last time out and was a good second before that at Southwell against some fairly competitive opposition. Whilst he hasn't won a race since 2011, he is on good form and can make it happen today against weaker opposition.
SWIFT LORD - WIN
ALWAYSTHEOPTIMIST - EACH WAY
4:15PM
Prediction - The race of the day in my opinion. I really like the look of CLARET CLOAK, who has shown glimpses of class with impressive wins at Newbury and Sandown in the past. He performed well on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival in an extremely competitive handicap hurdle finishing 16th. I rate this performance much more than most people. I will be looking for him to go for the win today. Other preferences are for ROCKY ELSOM and DREAMBROOK LADY.
CLARET CLOAK - WIN
ROCKY ELSOM - EACH WAY
DREAMBROOK LADY - EACH WAY
4:50PM
Prediction - A poor race with not many who have performed well in the past. MASTER CARDOR VISA is one that will almost certainly be there or thereabouts today. He has put in some pleasing performances against moderate opposition and the trip should be of no concern. The other preference is for ASHMOLIAN. The bookmakers have opposed this horse, although I believe the trip should be no problem and whilst he fell at Plumpton last time out, he likes this sort of ground and at a big price, is worth a small Each Way bet.
MASTER CARDOR VISA - WIN
ASHMOLIAN - EACH WAY
Follow me on Twitter: @WheresMyEdge
Thursday, 11 April 2013
Back to Business...
It seems like I've been gone for a fairly lengthy amount of time.
After Cheltenham, I decided to take a small break away from racing. I felt like a break from looking at the form and betting markets would help refresh my mind and I would come into this week with a clear head and ready to kick things off again.
Cheltenham was a very tough week for me. Any punter out there who says Cheltenham is easy to predict, is on another planet and you only have to look at Tony McCoy riding only 1 winner in the whole week to assume that you can't take anything for granted.
We've had some fantastic Each Way placings in recent weeks and I'll look to take that one step further in making sure we turn those into winners.
Whilst my new website is now up (www.wheresmyedge.co.uk), we are yet to get the subscription emails out to current followers. Therefore, I encourage you to continue signing up to the website (it's free!) and at some point in the near future, we will have everything sorted again.
The new website allows punters to sign up, using their email address and that's it. We will look to send you newsletters each Saturday, where the tips and other related news will be. This saves you from checking the site every 5 minutes and you then have access to all the tips on your email account. It's simple and will be very effective in the long term.
I pride myself on being someone who shares their thoughts on Horse Racing for free. Sure, in the long run, I will look to turn 'Where's My Edge?' into a full business where customers can sign up on a monthly, 6 monthly or yearly basis and then recieve my tips through a free telephone message which they will phone at mid day each time a bet will be placed. However, I am content thus far for providing these tips for free. It still frustrates me that if people think something is free, they automatically assume it lacks quality and will therefore opt to pay for a service.
The saying 'The Best Things In Life Are Free' is surely one to use here.
In other news, I will be travelling up to Stratford this weekend with Jonny Stubbs (pictured). Just by looking at the runners, I can tell there is some brilliant racing lined up and I will be making sure that all tips will be uploaded to this site, early Saturday morning.
Please continue to follow me on Twitter: @WheresMyEdge for news when I'm at the course.
After Cheltenham, I decided to take a small break away from racing. I felt like a break from looking at the form and betting markets would help refresh my mind and I would come into this week with a clear head and ready to kick things off again.
 |
| At the Cheltenham Festival talking with Jonny Stubbs (left) about the horses we backed that day. |
Cheltenham was a very tough week for me. Any punter out there who says Cheltenham is easy to predict, is on another planet and you only have to look at Tony McCoy riding only 1 winner in the whole week to assume that you can't take anything for granted.
We've had some fantastic Each Way placings in recent weeks and I'll look to take that one step further in making sure we turn those into winners.
Whilst my new website is now up (www.wheresmyedge.co.uk), we are yet to get the subscription emails out to current followers. Therefore, I encourage you to continue signing up to the website (it's free!) and at some point in the near future, we will have everything sorted again.
The new website allows punters to sign up, using their email address and that's it. We will look to send you newsletters each Saturday, where the tips and other related news will be. This saves you from checking the site every 5 minutes and you then have access to all the tips on your email account. It's simple and will be very effective in the long term.
I pride myself on being someone who shares their thoughts on Horse Racing for free. Sure, in the long run, I will look to turn 'Where's My Edge?' into a full business where customers can sign up on a monthly, 6 monthly or yearly basis and then recieve my tips through a free telephone message which they will phone at mid day each time a bet will be placed. However, I am content thus far for providing these tips for free. It still frustrates me that if people think something is free, they automatically assume it lacks quality and will therefore opt to pay for a service.
The saying 'The Best Things In Life Are Free' is surely one to use here.
In other news, I will be travelling up to Stratford this weekend with Jonny Stubbs (pictured). Just by looking at the runners, I can tell there is some brilliant racing lined up and I will be making sure that all tips will be uploaded to this site, early Saturday morning.
Please continue to follow me on Twitter: @WheresMyEdge for news when I'm at the course.
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