CHEPSTOW 3:30PM SATURDAY 23RD FEBRUARY 2013

See previous posts for racing at 

Chepstow and Kempton

Oiseau De Nuit - The form for this horse looks fairly average, with his last win back in October. Since then, he has raced twice, finishing 6th on both occasions in very competitive races. His win also came against some tough opposition, suggesting that the form here, is solid. Overall, it is clear that the horse has ability but his slump in form may be his downfall today.

Cornas - This horse hasn't won since January 2011 and since then the form looks pretty average. He hasn't run since April of last year, suggesting that he may not be fit enough to win this race, especially in these tricky conditions. He had a good season in 2011, but I believe it will take a few more runs for this horse to become a serious contender.

Doeslessthanme - After a fantastic year in 2012, this horse has started 2013 off slowly, finishing 4th at Warwick over 2m4f on Heavy ground. This was a big stamina test for him and he failed to reproduce his best form. This drop in trip should suit, although the going of the ground is a slight concern. Overall, I expect this horse to go well today.

Oh Crick - There has been widespread interest in this horse and many have told me that he is the one to watch today. I cannot see any reason why this is the case. He has proved unreliable at times and although he won at Chepstow last time he was here, I'm not totally convinced he will reproduce the same form today.

Dunowen Point - A horse which is clearly in the form of his life, having not finished outside the top 2 since May 2011. Furthermore, all the races he has participated in have been against fairly competitive opposition. If we take the form figures into account, I see no reason why this horse can't go on and win today.

Renard - With his last win back in January last year, the form looks fairly average and he has been unreliable in some of his starts. He hasn't run since December and I fear against good quality opposition today, that he may not be good enough to have a big influence on the outcome.

Gus Macrae - This horse has a good number of wins under his belt, but all have come against fairly average opposition. He has consistently failed to produce quality performances on testing ground, which may play against him today. Overall, I don't feel that the ground is a worry and the opposition may prove to be too tough today.

Ballgarvey - Whilst this horse has a good track record of wins, it has proven unreliable in the past. However, he relishes testing ground and if the going is like that today, I predict this horse to go well today. This is a drop down in trip for him which should suit. Overall, with the conditions as they are, I fancy this horse today.

Anay Turge - N/R

PREDICTION - There are a few horses here which I like, but as this is a 8 runner race, I have selected 3 which I think are most likely to complete the podium. DUNOWEN POINT looks like the most likely winner here, with BALLYGARVEY and DOESLESSTHANME completing the place positions.

CHEPSTOW 2:10PM SATURDAY 23RD FEBRUARY 2013.

See previous post for the 1:30pm race at

Kempton

De La Bech - This horse has never run over fences, although he is proven over this lengthy distance. His last run was at Warwick over 3m1f on Soft ground where he finished 13th. This was arguably a bit too far for him. Before that, he won at Ascot over 3m on Heavy ground. He clearly has bags of stamina as this was a fantastic effort, bearing in mind the testing conditions. He also beat Okafranca that day, but only by 1 1/4 lengths, indicating that their ability is fairly similar. Overall, I have no concern in regards to the trip and conditions, but the lack of experience at this level may play against him.

Firebird Flyer - Proven over this trip and on testing conditions, which should be no trouble for him tomorrow. His last run was at Plumpton over 2m4f on Heavy ground where he finished 5th. This may have been a bit too short for him, and after making numerous mistakes, was never able to get into the race. Overall, aspirations should be high for this horse, as he handles all ground relatively well. 

Global Power - Whilst this horse is proven over this distance, he struggles to deal with the testing conditions which may play against him tomorrow. He likes to race keenly which may cause the horse to use up for more energy which could be disastrous if the ground is too testing. His last win came in October in a fairly competitive race, although this was a much shorter distance. Overall, I think the testing ground will be too much for him and he is likely to struggle. 

High Ho Sheriff - This horse has only ever run 4 times in his career, and all on testing conditions. Therefore, the going today shouldn't be a problem and he is also proven over this distance. His only win came at this course over the same distance in a fairly competitive race. His jumping was good and he stayed on well. He also likes left handed tracks, which should suit him tomorrow. Overall, he has the ability to repeat performance last time he was here, although this is against tougher opposition.

Okafranca - Proven over the 3m distance, although the form does look pretty average. His last win was in December in a fairly competitive race. However, he doesn't appear to like the testing ground, which could play against him today. Overall, he showed good form in December, but this has trailed off into the New Year, although the opposition appears to be weaker here which may give him a chance.

Safran De Cotte - Whilst this horse is proven over the distance, his 3 career wins have come over shorter distances. On his last run, he won at Leicester over 2m7f on Heavy ground in a fairly competitive race. His jumping here was fantastic and he seems to cope really well with testing conditions. However, the 3m trip has never seemed too much of a problem on his previous runs where he has shown promise. Overall, I think this horse has a fantastic chance tomorrow, especially if he can convert his form from shorter distances. 

Rydalis - Just by looking at her recent form figures, its easy to suggest that this horse is in great form. Her last win came at Ludlow in January in a competitive handicap which was run at a fair pace. This was over 3m on Soft ground. Overall, against average opposition today, I feel she has a great chance.

PREDICTION - Once again, with 7 runners, there are 2 runners which I think stand out from the rest. These are SAFRAN DE COTTE and RYDALIS. Both of these have a lot of experience over this distance and handle the testing conditions very wel.

KEMPTON 1:30PM SATURDAY 23RD FEBRUARY 2013

Filbert - Today's outing is his second start over fences. Previously, this horse had run over hurdles, with a respectable form record. On his last run out, he won at Ludlow over 2m on Soft ground. This form looks solid as it was a fairly competitive race. Both his career wins have come on Soft ground, which is something that could play into his hands today. However, he has performed poorly on Heavy ground, so it may be wise to look at the going of the ground before placing a bet. Overall, with Richard Johnson on board, this horse is guaranteed a good ride and Each Way prospects look likely.

Escort'men - His last win was in October 2010 and since then, it has been fairly unreliable and some of his runs have also been fairly poor. He was 3rd last time out at Warwick over 2m4f on Heavy ground. This was a decent, competitive race and he seemed to like this trip. 2m4f seems to be ideal trip, which is likely to be his advantage over the others. However, this horse has proved too unreliable in the past and his recent results haven't been too encouraging. I won't be having a bet.

Midnight Sail - When looking at this horse's form, it is clear to see that this horse is in the form of his life. It hasn't finished outside the top 4 since February 2010 and apart from his last run, he has finished 2nd 7 out of 8 times. He was 4th last time out at Plumpton over 2m4f on Heavy ground after making a few mistakes and failing to reproduce his best. Overall, this horse is in fantastic form and he is almost certainly worthy of an Each Way bet.

Triangular - It's been just under a year since this horse last won, and since then, it's form has been far from satisfactory. It's been used to running over this sort of trip and over Good and Soft ground. He has always struggled to keep up with the other runners pace and never looked a threat in any of these runs. In my opinion, this horse needs a revival in form, and I don't think this race is the one. I will not be having a bet.

Storming Gale - This horse last won in Feburary 2012 and since then, it has only run 4 times. His last run was at Kempton over 3m on Good-Soft ground and he finished 3rd. He looked like he was going  to win the race, but tired in the closing stages. It looks like this drop in trip will suit, although he hasn't run over this distance for over a year. Overall, this horse's form doesn't particularly stand out as any good, especially against this sort of opposition. I won't be having a bet.

Mickelson - This horse's last run was on an All Weather track and he finished 2nd, although I can't take this form into consideration. His last run over fences was in December, where he pulled up, and his last win was back in May. With AP McCoy riding today, one would think that this horse is open to improvement. However, his form is poor and I think it would take a less competitive race for a revival in form. With the Champion Jockey on board though, anything may be possible.

Millarow - This horse looks to be in the form of his life and he hasn't finished outside the top 3 since February 2012. Furthermore, all of these runs have been in fairly competitive races. On his last run, he finished 2nd. This was at Wincanton over 2m5f on Heavy ground. This suggests that he handles testing conditions well and today's trip is no problem. Overall, I really like this horse and expect it to go very well today.

Lexicon Lad - This horse's last win was in November 2011 and since then his form has been fairly respectable. However, on his last run at Cheltenham over 2m5f on Heavy ground, he failed to reproduce his best form and as this has been his only run on testing ground, it seems that he struggled with the conditions, which may play against him today. Overall, I think the going of the ground will be key for this horse as I fear that if things don't all go his way he could struggle. However, if the ground is firm, then he could be in with every chance today.

Lucy's Legend - Her last run was at Kempton over 2m on Good-Soft ground, where he finished 5th. This was a poor race, although they did go a fairly good gallop. Her wins have come against average opposition, suggesting that this tougher test may prove to be a bit too much for her. Her only advantage today is that she is low in the weights. Overall, the form figures look pleasing, but this was against weaker opposition than she faces today. I won't be having a bet.

PREDICITON - As there are only 9 runners in the race, I have chosen 2 horses which I think will be in the thick of it come the end of the race today. These selections are MIDNIGHT SAIL and MILARROW. Both of these runners are in fantastic form and I expect them both to go well today. 

'Where's My Edge?' - How does everything work..

For aspiring young professional punters out there, I thought a step-by-step behind the scenes guide to how I analyse racing would be beneficial.

Here's what happens...

Friday Night:
After a long week at work, the weekend used to be about going out with friends and relaxing. This has now changed. As soon as I get home from work, I quickly eat my tea, grab a few cups of tea and head upstairs to my room. Before I leave work in the morning, I update all of the racing software I use, so all results and horse ratings are up to date and Saturday's meetings are ready on my screen.

A pen and pad are waiting on my desk and I then set to work on studying each race. Unlike serious professional gamblers, I lack the resources such as sectional times and recorded racing, so I am sometimes unable to revisit races which involve horses in question. If I am serious about a horse, I will research it on the web and log in to At The Races and Racing UK online and watch their last race. That way, I get a better picture and can build my own opinion, rather than relying on the figures and facts provided by my software.

Each race, depending on how many runners there are, will take me roughly 45 minutes to complete. During that time, I look at the horse's form, what ground it likes etc. Once all runners have been analysed to a satisfactory point, I then look at all of them together and look at who can beat who and then make a predicted finishing order. It is then, that I make my final decision on who I think is most likely to win the race.

As time passes and I become more and more familiar with looking at these races, I will be able to get more done in the same space of time and I will therefore, add more races to the blog. Presently, I aim to do 2 races from each jump meeting on the day.

Once this is done, I have now decided not to upload the tips onto the blog until Saturday morning, just before midday. That way, the site gets much more traction.


Saturday Morning/Afternoon:
It's quite sad, but normally I struggle to sleep properly on Friday night as I am constantly looking forward to Saturday's racing. This means I am up bright and early and ready to upload the tips onto the blog. I tend to spend the whole of Saturday in the bookmakers with friend, Jonny Stubbs, watching each race as it unfolds. I have already mentioned his inability to follow my tips and still believes that putting his stake money onto the virtual Blackjack will generate a bigger return, so the day is effectively me, sweating over the racing, whilst he sweats over whether the dealer gets a Queen and a Ace.

Once all racing has been completed, I always spend an hour or so reflecting over the results and seeing where I went right and wrong. I will always be right about some things and always wrong about some things. There will never be a time where I get everything right, or everything wrong. It is simply not the case.

Finally, whether I win or lose, I never let it go to my head. If I lose every race I tip in, my only frustration will be that other people have put their money on my tips. I never feel annoyed for losing my own money. However, I know that this is a marathon and if I keep this process, people will win with my bets. That's the long and short of it.

Please check out the blog tomorrow for tips on racing at Chepstow, Kempton and Newcastle

Twitter: www.twitter.com/wheresmyedge

GRAND NATIONAL QUALIFIER - HAYDOCK 2:55PM 16TH FEBRUARY 2013

See previous posts below for tips on racing at 

Wincanton and Ascot.

Silver By Nature - This extra test of stamina should be no problem for this horse, who has completed a 4m 4f race in April 2011. He hasn't run since,  so there must be a reason for this. I think this horse prefers firmer ground, which could play against him today. The 4m race was a bit too much for him and he has won over 3m4f in testing conditions, so this trip should be no problem. Overall, my concern is his lengthy absence, which may either be a very good sign or a bad sign. However, I am not willing to risk having a bet here.

Teaforthree - Stamina should be no problem for this horse, as he won a 4m race in March last year against some decent competition. His last run  was in January at Chepstow over 3m5f on Heavy ground, also against good opposition. This horse is clearly Grand National material and has more than enough ability to win this race. As I write this, he is joint favorite for the race and I would prefer his odds to be a little bigger to have a E/W bet. A big player.

Cannington Brook - A very good stayer, proven over these lengthy distances and handles testing ground very well.  He proved this when he finished 2nd last time out at Ffos Las over 3m1f on Heavy ground. He won before that in December at Haydock in a fairly competitive race. I'm not totally convinced that he has enough ability to beat the others here, but certainly Each Way prospects are there as the ground and distance are in his favour. 

Giles Cross - A stayer, but was unconvincing in his last run at Chepstow when he pulled up rather quickly. He won this race last year and is also deemed a fine sort for the Grand National. He has pulled up on his last two starts, so he may not be on a very good run of form. Overall, he obviously has enough quality to win a race of this calibre, by my only concern is the form figures. I will make a judgement on having a bet or not, depending on the movement of the market.

Monbeg Dude - A proven stayer and has won on his last two outings over fences, beating Teaforthree in the process. Both races this horse has won have been against fairly competitive opposition, which he must be given credit for. Each Way prospects are key here, and only if there was enough value in the market, would I have a serious bet. 

Lackamon - Whilst this horse is proven over the 3m mark, he has never been raced over the extra 5 furlongs which may be of some concern. On top of that, his average performances have come against weak opposition. For me, the lack of experience at this level and distance suggest that this horse may not have the quality to get heavily involved here.

Nepture Equester - A proven stayer over this sort of trip and won last time out at Wetherby over 2m6f on Heavy ground over hurdles. Over fences, he hasn't won since November 2011. His form has been well below average since then against some mediocre opposition. Personally, I don't think this horse has enough quality to win a race of this grade.

Viking Blond - This trip should be of no cocnern for a horse who has done well over this sort of trip before. Last time out at Sandown he was 2nd in a fairly competitive race over 3m 110y on Heavy ground. He has been closely compared to Monbeg Dude in the past and has always finished fairly close to him. For me, I think this is an excellent Each Way bet to have at 16/1 and above. A player.

Rigadin De Beauchene - This horse has won over this trip on his last outing at Warwick on Soft ground, against some fairly competitive opposition. However, it has been noted that this horse is best at a trip below 3m. He managed to stay on well at the end of his last outing to collect an impressive victory. I stand by my opinion in that he would relish in a shorter trip. I will look to oppose this horse today. 

Well Refreshed - Once again, a proven stayer having won over this trip on his last outing at Plumton on Soft ground. Whilst his jumping has been a concern in the past, the longer trip was ideal for him and he could go well again today. He also beat Rigadin De Beachene in December, beating him by 3 1/2 lengths. I like this horse and expect him to go well today.

Lively Baron - Proven and won over this trip on his penultimate run. Whilst he has an impressive number of wins under his belt, they have come up against weak opposition and the form is pretty much ordinary. Although he has shown that he has more than enough ability to stay the trip, his inexperience against much tougher opposition may play against him today.

Trigger The Light - Won over this trip on his penultimate run at Warwick on Good ground, against some fairly tough opposition. Although it can be argued that he only won that race due to mistakes made by the other front runners. On his latest run, he ran a really good race when finishing 3rd at Haydock over 3m4f. Overall, this horse seems to put in some good performances when needed and whilst I think he may be unlikely to challenge for the win today, Each Way prospects are certainly there.

Triggerman - He is more than capable of seeing out this trip, and was only 11 lengths behind Monbeg Dude and Teaforthree at Chepstow. He only conceded defeat at the final fence that day and he clearly has plenty of ability. Last time he won was in 2011, however, and this was on Good solid ground which is unlikely today. Overall, I feel this horse has ability, but it may take a lot more from him to win again today.

Mac Aeda - A proven stayer over these sort of distances and was 3rd last time out at Haydock, being beaten by Cannington Brook by 14 lengths. He dislikes the Soft ground however, and his jumping is not always fluent when it needs to be. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.

PREDICTION - A great race with a lot of very competitive horses running. All are proven stayers over long distances, so it is likely to be about pure ability today. As far as betting is concerned, the value I've found is in TEAFORTHREE, CANNINGTON BROOK, VIKING BLOND and MONBEG DUDE, who all seem to be at bigger prices than I expected. 

Here's how I am going to bet:

- TEAFORTHREE - Bet to Win

- CANNINGTON BROOK - Each Way Bet

- VIKING BLOND - Each Way Bet

- MONBEG DUDE - Each Way Bet

WINCANTON 2:30PM 16TH FEBRUARY 2013

See previous posts below for racing at Ascot

Buck Magic - This horse was third last time out at Kempton in a fairly competitive race. He looked like winning that day, but had no answer to the eventual winner 2 from home. Before that he won at Cheltenham in a very competitive race over 2m 5f on Good-Soft ground. In my opinion, since changing yards this horse has been at the top of his game and if things fall his way tomorrow, he could be chasing the win.

Who Owns Me - This horse is well known for tests over long distances, so stamina is no problem. He has won numerous times and although this might be against tougher opposition, this horse has every chance of E/W prospects with it's great run of form. I will look to have a bet.

Amigo - With only two runs under his belt, I am struggling to see why this horse is the clear favorite. He is clearly comfortable over long distances when he won at Chepstow over 3m. He had to work hard to keep his lead that day and punters will have to bear in mind that Amigo is coming up against much more experienced horses who have a proven track record. I think Who Owns Me has ran well against tough opposition than Amigo has had to race, therefore I think this task will be much too difficult for him.

Benvolio - Much like Amigo, this horse has only started 3 races in England. He won last time out at Wincanton in a 2m6f Novice Hurdle race with moderate opposition. The form isn't as impressive as Amigo's, but nevertheless, I still feel that there are others who are more experienced and won against much better opposition. I'm not having a bet based on the fact that he hasn't had enough runs under his belt in more competitive races.

Old Tricks - He was 7th last time out at Cheltenham in a competitive handicap. His form doesn't look the most appealing and in some cases, this is true. Some poor performances have come against poor opposition and for that reason, I don't feel that he has the quality to beat some of these. I won't be having a bet.

The Jugopolist - Once again, the form doesn't look much when looking at this horse. After being pulled up at Warwick in January, he finished 2nd at Ffos Las in a moderately competitive Novices Hurdle race. The horse appears to like harder, faster ground which may play against him tomorrow. Personally, the poor form looks valid and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Semi Colon - This horse also has poor form. On his last two starts over hurdles, he has been in terrible form and has been quoted as 'one to avoid'. For that reason, I will not be having a bet.

Coup Royale - Once again, this horse has been in terrible form. In his last 4 starts, he has been pulled up 3 times. He previously had a breathing problem which may have caused him severe problems. I won't be having a bet.

Laflammedeglorie - This horse has only had 3 starts over hurdles, and pulled up last time out at Chepstow over 3m on Heavy ground. There appeared to be something wrong here as he stopped quickly out on track. This return may signal a revival back to his form shown in his last two runs. However, when he won, the trainer had no explanation for this improvement in form. For me, I would only have a bet if the odds were right, but other than that, I won't be interested.

Madam Naso - A horse who is out of form and is unlikely to make any sort of impact on today's race.

PREDICTION - This is a race which is very much split down the middle between high quality horses and the weak runners. Once again, I am looking for value, therefore I believe WHO OWNS ME is a brilliant Each Way bet at 10/1.

ASCOT 3:50PM 16TH FEBRUARY 2013

See previous post for the 2:40 at Ascot

Captain Chris - The trip of 2m5f is of no concern whatsoever for this horse who was 2nd to Long Run at Kempton in the King George Chase. He tends to jump right at fences which could benefit him at a right handed track like Ascot. He obviously has a lot of ability and whilst the ground could cause minor problems for him tomorrow, he is sure to be in the thick of it.

Cue Card - Last time out, Cue Card was beaten by Captain Chris by 20 lengths, which may suggest that the 3m trip was too tough for him. This drop in trip should definitely suit and it should be much closer between him and the favorite today. A previous jockey of his said that 2m4f would be his ideal trip, and it is sure to be close between him and Captain Chris tomorrow.

Finian's Behaviour - This horse has a fantastic track record of wins, although he was beaten 24 lengths by Captain Chris last time out. It is known that this horse struggles badly on testing conditions, so that is something to bear in mind when having a bet. Personally, I think he is better than Cue Card as long as the ground is in his favour. Each Way prospects.

Ghizao - Again, this horse has a reasonable record, but is one who also prefers a harder surface. He was beaten by Captain Chris by 4 lengths at Ascot in November and it looks to be close again. If I'm looking for value, I think I would have a E/W bet on this horse.

Pigeon Island  - The quality of this race is really too high for this horse to have any substantial impact on the race. At odds of 66/1 and with a below par form record, I think this horse would be better suited in a grade lower race.

Somersby - A horse who was keeping in touch with phenomenon, Sprinter Sacre, for most of the journey at Cheltenham last time out, surely says something about his ability. It was a lack of fitness that caused him trouble that day, so he may well be in touch for this one. Interesting.

PREDICTION - Despite Captain Chris being a short odds against favorite here, I believe that this race is wide open for the win. I do fancy SOMERSBY and FINIAN'S RAINBOW as the horses who can make a big impact on the race. As I am looking for value, I feel that GHIZAO at 9/1 is a fantastic small E/W bet here, or one of the horses mentioned above for the win. 

Please bear in mind, I am looking for horses with the most value. I am not trying to pick the winner, but rather find horses which I think have been overpriced by the book makers and therefore, are a good bet to have.

ASCOT 2:40PM 16TH FEBRUARY 2013

Cappa Bleu - This horse is proven over 3m and 4th in last years Grand National, so the trip is no concern whatsoever. In fact, this may be a little too short for Cappa Bleu. Last time, he ran over 3m 110y and finished 2nd on Heavy ground. He has always been fairly consistent and has never finished outside the first 4. This horse seems to prefer Good-Soft ground, whereas tomorrow is looking like it will be Heavy ground. In my eyes, anything 5/1 and upwards is very good odds for an Each Way position, therefore I will look at the market tomorrow and am likely to have a E/W bet on this horse if the odds are right. A player.

Tatenen - This horse has struggled over 3m in the past, which may be of some concern. However, after watching him at Cheltenham in December, I was very pleased with the way he ran, despite finishing 6th. A blunder 4 from home may have cost him the lead and victory that day, therefore the form may be not be as accurate as it suggests. His last 3m run at Kempton suggests he was traveling well, until tiring very quickly in the home straight. For me, I think he will struggle to fight for the win here, and a drop in trip should suit. I will not be having a bet.

Saint Are - This horse is proven over 3m, although the form doesn't look all that healthy. He was 4th at Cheltenham in December and seemed to struggle in the later stages of the race. However, this may be down to the terrible conditions that day and that it was also over 3m 1f 110y.  His last win was in April last year at Aintree, where he seemed to cope well under pressure. His performance in that race was of pure quality against some tough opposition. However, his recent unreliability is a concern and only if the odds were right, would I then have a small Each Way bet. If bookmakers are willing to lay your bets at 8/1 or more, then that would be a good bet to have.

Problema Tic - Stamina should prove no problem for this horse, as he has won multiple races over 3m on fairly testing ground. Last time out, he fell at Aintree over 3m 2f on Heavy ground, although he was far from being beaten when he did fall. He prefers Good ground, but is also proven on testing conditions too. For me, this horse has more than enough ability to win the race and my only slight concern would be the ground. Big player.

Ashkazar - Only 2 starts over fences for this horse, with his form being relatively average over hurdles. He is more than capable over 3m, when he won at Cheltenham last April over 3m 1f in a competitive handicap. On his last race, he was never traveling and resulted in him being pulled up. My concern for this horse is the going of the ground, which may prove to be too hard for him tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.

The Rainbow Hunter - I like this horse and was disappointed to see him struggle at Chepstow last time out. It was reported after, however, that he had been suffering from a breathing problem. One can only assume that he has overcome this now and on a gradual recovery back to his best form. Before this issue, he has won two tough races over 3m in a row. Now, I'm not saying he will be back to his best, but at 9/1 and above, he is a fantastic E/W bet to have. A player.

Idarah - For me, the poor form and the current odds  for this horse suggest that he almost certainly won't be involved a lot in the race tomorrow. He has never run over 3m and on testing conditions, he is likely to struggle. I will not be having a bet.

Vino Gregio - I am very keen to oppose this favorite, for a number of reasons. I was at Cheltenham that day when he won very convincingly over 2m 5f. However, after watching the race back, the jockey had come off the bridle fairly early to keep this horse in the race. Tomorrow, he will have to run an extra 5 furlongs, having never run over 3m before. The competition is also much harder than he faced last time. I won't be having a bet due to the simple fact that he is entering unknown territory here.

Brackloon High - Definitely proven over 3m and was 4th last time out at Sandown. However, in my eyes this is not a indicator of his true talent, due to early mistakes ruining his race. He doesn't particularly like testing conditions and prefers right handed tracks. Despite the figures on his form, I like this horse and if he can put his last effort behind him, he is sure to improve here. A player.

Major Malarkey - Stamina is no problem for this horse, having run in two 4m races. However, I have a big concern for him as far as the going of the ground is concerned for tomorrows race. He really doesn't like the testing conditions, and would prefer Good ground on a race like this. I think this is what's putting me off having a bet, as he is obviously a stayer, but the ground is likely to play against him.

PREDICTION - A 10 runner race means that I can't have too many bets in the race. I like 3 or 4 here, which include CAPPA BLEU, PROBLEMA TIC, THE RAINBOW HUNTER and BRACKLOON HIGH. However, I will only officially choose two horses for the selection. These are PROBLEMA TIC and THE RAINBOW HUNTER. 

UPDATE - AS PROBLEMA TIC IS A NON RUNNER, I WILL BE SELECTING CAPA BLEU INSTEAD.

Once again, you have to bear in mind I am looking for horses with the most value. I am not trying to pick the winner, but rather find horses which I think have been overpriced by the book makers and therefore are a good bet to have. 

Betting: A Marathon, not a Sprint...

I was speaking to a friend of mine tonight, and the topic of gambling and betting on horses came up. He was familiar with this blog, and how I tip on Saturday's racing. He was surprised and pleased when I mentioned the 14/1 winner on Saturday at Warwick, and once I told him how much I'd won, his mouth dropped to the floor and he asked the simple question:

'Why don't you stop whilst your ahead?'

There are two answers to this question; one which the majority of punters feel and one which only a minority stick to, no matter how hard it may be. Firstly, many gamblers feel, especially in the casino, that when they are winning; luck is on their side. They feel almost invincible, and fear that if they stop now, all of their luck will shatter and they will return to their losing ways. Nine times out of ten, the punter will lose his or her money, and I'm not talking about their winnings or profit. The whole lot. They will then proceed to trudge home, pound signs spinning in their head and just gritting their teeth and wishing they had stopped at a certain point. 

Isn't hind sight a wonderful thing?

The other answer to this question is a more methodical and sensible approach to gambling. I take the same attitude to a bet regardless of if I win £200 or lose £200. For me, I judge my betting performance over a certain time frame, and you'll find that all serious punters will do the same. Followers of the blog will notice that I have started to put a tally of my bets after every review, indicating how much I have lost or win since the start of this blog. Overall, my profit is very high, but this means nothing to me. I had a fantastic weekend just gone, but it will only take a lackadaisical approach this week, for all my profits to disappear. 

If I won £20,000 last weekend, I still wouldn't stop betting. It's not because I'm addicted, it's all down to keeping a steady head and being consistent with your bets. If you become consistent week in, week out, then there should be no reason to stop. So I'm afraid you're stuck with me,my tips and my blog posts for a while.

You're not getting rid of me that easily..

REVIEW: WARWICK 9TH FEBRUARY 2013

After a pleasing day's racing last weekend at Sandown, it got better and better with a fantastic result at Warwick the Saturday just gone.

12:55PM - Here I thought Cloudy Bob, Jonny Delta and Extremely So were all over priced by the bookmakers and thought that they were all good bets to have. Walking into William Hill on a cold, Saturday morning in Bristol, I looked at the odds and was delighted to see that all 3 horses were still more or less at the same prices I hoped they would be. I staked £5 E/W on all 3 horses, at 14/1 (Cloudy Bob) 8/1 (Jonny Delta) and 5/1 (Extremely So). 

The result was not perfect, but nevertheless, I was overjoyed as Cloudy Bob led the whole way and went on to claim victory at 14/1! At the time, I was joined by Jonny Stubbs, who I have mentioned in previous posts. Jonny had come with me that today with the intention of backing my horses. Instead, he missed out on the first race and put £20 into the machines and played on the electronic Black Jack. I couldn't have been more disappointed. He missed out on a fantastic win and whilst he went on to somehow win £100, I felt that I had the better result and victory tasted sweet. 

1:30PM - This race was more disappointing and we were unfortunate here. Ma Filleule won the race with the Champion Jockey, AP McCoy, on board. He started 7/4 favorite and always looked the likely winner, despite my reasoning for opposing him. He seemed to find this extended trip no problem, whilst the horses I backed, Kelles Belle and Kaffie, didn't deliver on the day. 

Saying that, I was pleased with the way Kaffie traveled for the majority of the race and I have no doubt that he will win a race of that calibre and distance in the not to distant future. Kelles Belle, on the other hand, never really got going and I thought that she was a massive disappointment in a race which she was more than capable of winning. 

Overall, it was a fantastic day with Cloudy Bob boasting profits substantially. If every weekend is like this one, we won't go too far wrong. However, we must remember that this is a marathon, not a sprint and whilst today was a winning day, there will be losing ones.

Hopefully, not too many!

BETTING TALLY SINCE START OF BLOG

10 Bets
3 Winners
3 Placed
4 Lost

WARWICK 1:30PM 9TH FEBRUARY 2013

Alasi - N/R

Kauto Shiny - Decent French form, but is yet to run on British soil. I'm unable to make a wise judgement.

Kells Belle - I really like this horse. Fourth last time out at Sandown over 2m4f on Heavy ground. Looking at the form, it is easy to suggest that this horse likes soft ground, as when she ran at Cheltenham in April last year, she beat Silver Gypsy by 5 1/2 lengths. Overall, whilst a little further would benefit her in today's race, I still see Kells Belle as a genuine contender for the win and will almost certainly be in the top 3 at the end.

Mae's Choice - The trip today is ideal for this horse, as well as the ground which he seems to relish in. His form is positive and valid enough, although I just think he lacks the raw speed when it comes down to the final home turn. Recent performances suggest that he always runs a solid race, but doesn't have enough energy when it comes down to the key moments. In my opinion, the win is slightly out of reach for this horse today.

Kaffie - As his last two runs have been over 3m and has struggled to make any serious impression in them, this drop in trip should suit Kaffie. He has won in the past on Heavy ground, so the going should be little or no concern for the horse. Although he has been beaten by Kells Bell before, his form suggests that it could be close between the two today. Player.

Ma Filleule - Only 3 starts over hurdles, but positive results in all of them. She has raced around the 2m mark on all 3 occasions, so this gentle step up in trip may be challenging for her, especially if the ground is testing too. For me, I want to oppose this horse as she is entering new territory with this rise in trip, and previous performances suggest that she won't have a lot to give in the closing stages of the race.

Silver Gypsy - Performed well in his recent outoing over 3m on Heavy ground, although he has proven he can do well over today's race distance. In April, he was beaten by Kells Belle by 5 lengths in a competitive race. Overall, I this this horse prefers a longer distance than today's race and therefore may struggle to get going in the later stages of the race.

Swincombe Flame - Outperformed by Silver Gypsy in his last outing over 3m, being beaten by 3 lengths. He hasn't won since January of last year, where he won at Kempton over 2m5f on Good ground. He does seem to like the Soft ground and the trip should be ideal for him today. My only worry is the ability of Silver Gypsy and whether or not, SF can get level today.

Tempest River - Pulled up last time at Kempton over 3m, suggesting that a drop down in trip should suit him today. His wins have come over 3m1f and on Good ground. In my opinion, the win should be out of reach for him today, although I wouldn't rule out a E/W place if his rivals fail to perform.


PREDICTION - I have watched a few of these horses in past events and they didn't seem to impress me when I watched them last time out. The favorite, MA FILLEULE, has failed to create an impression on me and this step up in trip should surely play against him. The horses which I feel have been over priced and are therefore, worth a bet are KELLS BELLE and KAFFIE, as I feel that the prices are the best value. 

WARWICK 12:55PM 9TH FEBRUARY 2013

I have now started an official Twitter account for the site: www.twitter.com/wheresmyedge

Here I will post tips on the spot (horses that I see throughout the day that I think have a chance of winning, but can't upload onto the blog) blog updates and news.

Onto the racing..



Red Inca - Ex flat horse, but is proven over hurdles. Hasn't run over hurdles since July of last year where he finished last at Market Rasen over 2m1f on Good ground. His latest run was on the All-Weather track where he finished 6th over 1m1f. Overall, the form doesn't appeal to me and he hasn't shown enough in the past to prove that he has what it takes to beat this opposition. I will not be having a bet.

Three White Socks - Ex flat and AW horse. Has only 2 starts over hurdles, which have been his last two starts. Both times he has finished 2nd in good, competitive races. His last run was at Sedgefield on Heavy ground over 2m4f. He was beaten 3 1/4 lengths and beat the next by 4. Both of these results have come on fairly testing ground, which may suit him tomorrow. Whilst it is his first time in the handicaps tomorrow, I feel that there is massive potential with this horse. A player.

Waterunder - Only four starts over hurdles and his last win was in January 2012 when he beat a odds on favorite. Since then, he has failed to make any impression on the races he has run in, finishing 9th last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground. For me, the form speaks for itself and I don't believe this horse will throw any surprises tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.

Open Day - Ridden by AP McCoy, this horse was 2nd and beaten a long way by Dark Lover last time out at Cheltenham over 2m1f. He should've got closer to the winner that day, but it just wasn't to be. This was a competitive race, however, and the form looks strong. Before that, he won at Leicester over 2m on soft ground. Again, the form looks solid and he seems to handle the testing ground well. However, my slight worry about tomorrow, is that I think he needs a bit further when coming up against tough opposition. A player, but the odds are too short for me to have a bet.

Dormouse - Followers of the blog will remember I backed this horse at Taunton in November at 13/2. AP McCoy was riding him that day and in my opinion, was the difference between winning or losing. His recent form is is respectable, although he finished 8th last time out and 35 lengths behind the eventual winner. Dormouse does like the testing ground which could play into his hands tomorrow.  Overall, I've noticed that his good form always comes when McCoy is riding him. As he'll be riding a rival tomorrow, I have decided not to have a bet on this horse.

Farmer Matt - Pulled up last time at Wetherby over 3m on Soft ground, suggesting that he isn't suited for the long trip. His two career wins have come over 2m6f and 2m7f on testing ground each time. Both were competitive races and the form is clearly valid. Overall, he seems to like the testing ground and a shorter distance in trip should make him a player.

Specialagent Alfie - Fourth last time out at Kempton in a flat race, so nothing to be extracted to help me find an edge for him in this race. His hurdle form has been nothing special, with his only win coming in February last year. He finished 11th at Wincanton on his last trip over hurdles in October. I don't see him bouncing back to make a big enough impact here. I won't be having a bet.

Coffee - Hasn't won since September of last year, with both wins on Good ground. Since then, he has made no impact on his last 3 races. His last run out at Taunton where he finished 9th over 2m1f on Heavy ground, indicates that he may not be up for the challenge here, against some tough opposition.

Cloudy Bob - He was 7th last time out at Kempton on Heavy ground over 2m7f. He may have struggled with this rise in trip, as earlier performances suggest that he is more comfortable and suited around the 2m mark. He has done well in some very competitive races, so experience should be no problem. The only worry I have is that the ground may be too testing for him and will suit others better. Could be a player if certain things fall his way.

Tealissio - Fourth last time out in a Novices Hurdle and whilst the two leaders may have appeared too strong for him, I believe he will find things easier now he's handicapped. He seems to love soft ground and his form has always been consistent. If the odds are right tomorrow, I will almost certainly be having a bet.

Flaming Charmer - Before his last start, his form was pretty average, but the last run at Warwick over 2m on Soft ground was a much improved effort. His jumping was consistent and he seems to like this track. This is a much steeper challenge, however, and he may need more experience before coming a serious contender.

Jonny Delta - Ex flat horse and only two starts over hurdles. Both have been over 2m and on Soft ground, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. He travels well in these conditions and jumping is normally pretty accurate. Overall, I have no concerns with the ground and stamina test. My only doubt is that he is coming up against tough opposition. If he's 12/1 or more, however, he is definitely worth a E/W bet.

Tom O Tara - A horse who doesn't like being put under pressure, suggesting that he never really finishes particuarly well. His form is pretty average and with him finishing 6th in his last two starts against moderate oppostion, he is likely to struggle further here against tougher rivals.

Extremely So - This is a horse who loves the soft ground and testing conditions. She won last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground over 2m1f after the race was run at a strong pace. She was also 2nd before that at Taunton on Heavy ground to Home Run. However, her good performances have come against moderate opposition and she will have to dig in hard if she is to beat her rivals tomorrow. Overall, this trip certainly suits and the Heavy ground also ensures that she is likely to be there or thereabouts at the end. Player

Taroum - Ex flat horse and only 4 starts over hurdles. He was 11th last time out at Ludlow in a fairly competitive race. However, I don't see any reason why this horse should make it into the top 10 tomorrow.

In the Crowd - Ex flat horse and only 3 starts over hurdles. He won on this track over the same distance in December, and looks to stay well and handle the tricky conditions. The form looks promising for this horse and he would almost certainly be a big player if he wasn't lacking in experience.


PREDICTION - These are the type of races I love. 16 runner handicap, where lots of horses are in with a promising chance of winning. This race is no different. I fancy 3 or 4 horses here at big prices as I feel that they have been underestimated by the bookmakers. CLOUDY BOB, JONNY DELTA and EXTREMELY SO are my choices for this race. I have decided not to pick an outright winner as I feel betting E/W here is much more profitable.

OPEN DAY would be a choice of mine, but I'm afraid I don't see an edge in his pricing, whereas with the horses mentioned above, I feel that they have a solid chance of winning and they have been massively overpriced by the bookmakers.

PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER ON FOR MORE TIPS ON TOMORROW'S RACING.

REVIEW: SANDOWN 2ND FEBRUARY 2013 AND DARLAN

Before I kick off the review of the racing on Sandown, I would just like to spare a moment or two for a horse that was fatally injured today, Darlan. The favorite for the Champion Hurdle race next month, tragically fell at the last fence at Doncaster today, resulting in a fatal injury. AP McCoy, the jockey on board Darlan, refused to ride his other horses that day, due to the emotional accident.

We lost a great horse in Darlan, and I'm sure he will be remembered for a very long time. 

*

Onto the news at Sandown.

After a very unlucky weekend at Cheltenham last weekend, I was determined to get straight back into the racing action. Overall, it was a brilliant weekend as far as the two races I looked at were concerned. 

1:50PM - Here I thought Toubab, Eastlake and Nozic had the best chances of winning this one. I found out late on in the day that Nozic was a Non Runner, which left Toubab and Eastlake in my selection. Toubab ran a very poor race and was never traveling with the rest of the pack. His jumping varied and he never looked comfortable throughout. He started off favorite and I'm sure that there will be a lot of upset punters out there, who were dismayed with his performance.

On the bright side, Eastlake stormed home to win, in very convincing fashion. He always looked comfortable, and with the ground suiting him well, he made sure that he beat his opposition well. The reason why I thought he was best suited as an Each Way bet, was due to the quality which I believed Toubab had. I knew that Eastlake would be near the winner at the end, but to come and win it in fantastic style, was brilliant.  

3:35PM - Here I had a bet on Mister Hyde to win and Viking Bond to place. Now, if any punter had walked into a bookmakers and looked at the race half way through, they would have bet their mortgage that Mister Hyde and Viking Bond were to come first and second. Everything was going MH's way, the pace was strong which I knew was what he liked, and VB was traveling very well just behind him. The pair altered positions and it wasn't until the last half mile, that Mister Hyde lost all momentum and rapidly fell down the pack. He really looked like he was going to win turning into the home straight, but it seemed that the pace was almost too quick for his liking and he ended up finishing down the order. 

On the plus side, Viking Bond., which started at 8/1, finished 2nd which was a great Each Way result. Again, the tempo was very much to his liking and he really impressed me on this outing. Against tough opposition here, he is sure to drop in price on his next run.

BETTING TALLY SINCE START OF BLOG

5 Bets
2 Winners
1 Placed
2 Lost

To conclude, a very promising and encouraging weekend. To make up for the unfortunate circumstances at Cheltenham a week ago, we managed to turn it around and make a healthy profit from Saturday's racing.

Tune in on Friday for the next update for Saturday's racing.

James

SANDOWN 3:35PM 2ND FEBRUARY 2013

Roberto Goldback - 3rd last time out at Ascot over 3m on Heavy ground, proving he will stay today's trip. Although he was 39 lengths behind the first two, he was travelling well and closing in on them before a blunder at the second last. Before that, he was travelling strongly at Newbury before falling midway down the back straight. Barry Geraghty rides him today and has past success with this horse. Overall, a clear player but makes one too many mistakes for my liking. I have no doubt that he will be very close to the winner at the end, if all goes to plan.

Mister Hyde - Won last time out at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground. There is no concern for stamina in regards to this horse today. This race was fairly competitive and Mister Hyde always looked like he was going to win 3 from home. Previous to that, he won at Market Rasen over 2m6f on Heavy ground. Personally, I think he loves longer distances and this trip of 3m110y is sure to play into his hands today. A big player, which could make his hatrick win today.

Brackloon High - Won last time out at Kempton over 3m on Good-Soft ground. He likes longer distances and has no problem with the extra stamina test. However, he does prefer better and faster ground which could cause him to struggle today. Prior to this run, he was beaten at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground by Mister Hyde, who beat him by 17 lengths. In my opinion, I think Mister Hyde has a big chance of winning this race and as he beat Brackloon High by some margin last time, I can't see BH getting anywhere near the front runners at the end.

Keppols Hill - Won last time out at Chepstow over 3m on Heavy ground. It is clear from this run that he loves testing ground and long distances. Although the race wasn't as competitive as suggested. In his previous two starts, he looked like he was going to go on and win, before making two bad mistakes at the last fence. Obviously a big player, but there could be others who match him as this is a much harder contest.

Summery Justice - Won last time out at Perth over 3m on Soft ground. After making an early mistake, he had to push on hard to finally get the win. Before that, he was 18th, carrying 11st 3lbs. Today, he will be riding with significantly less, but I think that there is other quality elsewhere.

Viking Bond - Pulled up last time out at Chepstow over 3m on Heavy ground. He was travelling well but dropped back after a few slow jumps down the far side, suggesting that if there is a slow gallop today, this horse may struggle. Before that, it ran well at Cheltenham over 3m 3f on soft ground. He traveled well again here and with a solid pace, he was able to produce a great result. If the tempo of the race is right, he could be in with a great chance today.

On Trend - 2nd last time out at Kempton over 3m on Good-Soft ground, and was beaten by Brackloon High, although the distance between them was only a length. This race was a personal best for this horse, with signs of improvement to come. I think he is better than Brackloon High on the basis that he stayed on better towards the end of the race. In November 2011, he also beat Mister Hyde by 19 lengths, although Mister Hyde may not have been at his best that day. Overall, a horse with strong potential, although this may prove a bit too tough for him today.


PREDICTION - There are some strong horses in today's race who have a very good chance of winning. As there are only 7 runners, there are only two spots for the Each Way places. I think I have to oppose the favorite, KEPPOLIS HILL, on the basis that this race is significantly harder than his previous runs and that he is prone to making mistakes at key moments. I like the look of MISTER HYDE, VIKING BOND and ROBERTO GOLDBACK, with MISTER HYDE taking the preference for the win today. I don't think ROBERTO GOLDBACK will be to far behind and if everything goes well today, then VIKING BOND is certainly in with a chance.

OTHER RACES ON 2ND FEB 2013

Due to personal reasons, the rest of the cards for Saturday's racing will be published before 12:00pm on Saturday afternoon.

See below for 1:50pm at Sandown


JH - 1/01/2013

SANDOWN 1:50PM 2ND FEBRUARY 2013

Oh Crick - Pulled up last time at Cheltenham over 2m 110y on Heavy ground. He finished lame, however, so not a true indicator of his ability. Before that he was 2nd to Ulck Du Lin after a pleasing comeback at Cheltenham. However, my feeling is that he is best raced over a longer trip. His last win was just under a year ago, so it may still take him some time to get back to the same mark. I won't be having a bet.

Toubab - Ruby Walsh rides this Nicholls horse who finished 3rd last time at Ascot over 2m1f on Heavy ground. The ground went against him that day, which might be the case tomorrow. Before that, he was 2nd to Sprinter Sacre, a phenomenal horse. He was the only one to get close to SS on that day and on that basis, I think he has a fantastic chance tomorrow. Big Player.

Idarah - 6th last time out at Sandown over 2m on Heavy ground. He was beaten by Nozic by 12 lengths. In the past, he has also been beaten by Sprinter Sacre by 30 lengths. For me, this implies that he has nowhere near enough quality to beat Toubab or even Nozic tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.

King Edmund - 5th last time out at Sandown over 2m on Heavy ground. He beat Idarah by 3 lengths and was beaten by Nozic by 9 lengths. This horse prefers better ground which could go against him tomorrow. Before that, he was second at Fontwell on soft ground. In my opinion, ground is a big factor and I don't think that it will suit this horse tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.

Falcoln Island - 4th last time out at Sandown. Beat King Edmund by 5 lengths and Idrah by 8 lengths. He was beaten by Nozic by 4 lengths. Before that, he was third beaten by Nozic by 12 lengths. He likes testing ground however, which may play into his hands tomorrow. Overall, I don't think he will beat Nozic and therefore, won't have a massive bearing on the race.

Kudu Country - 2nd last time out at Ayr over 2m on Heavy ground to Desert Cry. He was 2nd to the same horse at Haydock, and both races were fairly competitive. It's clear that he likes Heavy ground, which will suit him tomorrow. I still like Toubar however, although this horse has great Each Way prospects.

Lancetto - 4th last time out at Cheltenham over 2m 110y on Heavy ground, although he beat Oh Crick that day. It is clear that he relishes faster ground which seems unlikely tomorrow. Before that, he finished 4th again at Cheltenham on soft ground, making no impression on the leaders. Overall, the quality in this race is too high for this horse to make any serious impression. I won't be having a bet.

Eastlake - 2nd last time out at Warwick over 2m on Soft ground. Traveled well, although he was unable to fend off a late challenge from the eventual winner. He won at Ascot before that on Heavy ground in very convincing fashion. The ground is likely to suit this horse tomorrow and he is sure to be a player.

Nozic - 2nd last time out at Sandown, beating Falcoln Island, King Edmund and Idarah in convincing fashion. Before that, he was 2nd at Ascot ahead of Falcoln Island on Heavy ground. Like Eastlake, he likes this type of ground and is clearly a big player tomorrow.


CONCLUSION - There is a clear divide between the elite and the average in this race. As well as that, there are some which the ground will suit and others it wont. In my opinion, I strongly fancy TOUBAB for the win, with NOZIC and EASTLAKE in the Each Way places.