ASCOT 3:50PM 16TH FEBRUARY 2013

See previous post for the 2:40 at Ascot

Captain Chris - The trip of 2m5f is of no concern whatsoever for this horse who was 2nd to Long Run at Kempton in the King George Chase. He tends to jump right at fences which could benefit him at a right handed track like Ascot. He obviously has a lot of ability and whilst the ground could cause minor problems for him tomorrow, he is sure to be in the thick of it.

Cue Card - Last time out, Cue Card was beaten by Captain Chris by 20 lengths, which may suggest that the 3m trip was too tough for him. This drop in trip should definitely suit and it should be much closer between him and the favorite today. A previous jockey of his said that 2m4f would be his ideal trip, and it is sure to be close between him and Captain Chris tomorrow.

Finian's Behaviour - This horse has a fantastic track record of wins, although he was beaten 24 lengths by Captain Chris last time out. It is known that this horse struggles badly on testing conditions, so that is something to bear in mind when having a bet. Personally, I think he is better than Cue Card as long as the ground is in his favour. Each Way prospects.

Ghizao - Again, this horse has a reasonable record, but is one who also prefers a harder surface. He was beaten by Captain Chris by 4 lengths at Ascot in November and it looks to be close again. If I'm looking for value, I think I would have a E/W bet on this horse.

Pigeon Island  - The quality of this race is really too high for this horse to have any substantial impact on the race. At odds of 66/1 and with a below par form record, I think this horse would be better suited in a grade lower race.

Somersby - A horse who was keeping in touch with phenomenon, Sprinter Sacre, for most of the journey at Cheltenham last time out, surely says something about his ability. It was a lack of fitness that caused him trouble that day, so he may well be in touch for this one. Interesting.

PREDICTION - Despite Captain Chris being a short odds against favorite here, I believe that this race is wide open for the win. I do fancy SOMERSBY and FINIAN'S RAINBOW as the horses who can make a big impact on the race. As I am looking for value, I feel that GHIZAO at 9/1 is a fantastic small E/W bet here, or one of the horses mentioned above for the win. 

Please bear in mind, I am looking for horses with the most value. I am not trying to pick the winner, but rather find horses which I think have been overpriced by the book makers and therefore, are a good bet to have.