See previous posts below for tips on racing at
Wincanton and Ascot.
Silver By Nature - This extra test of stamina should be no problem for this horse, who has completed a 4m 4f race in April 2011. He hasn't run since, so there must be a reason for this. I think this horse prefers firmer ground, which could play against him today. The 4m race was a bit too much for him and he has won over 3m4f in testing conditions, so this trip should be no problem. Overall, my concern is his lengthy absence, which may either be a very good sign or a bad sign. However, I am not willing to risk having a bet here.
Teaforthree - Stamina should be no problem for this horse, as he won a 4m race in March last year against some decent competition. His last run was in January at Chepstow over 3m5f on Heavy ground, also against good opposition. This horse is clearly Grand National material and has more than enough ability to win this race. As I write this, he is joint favorite for the race and I would prefer his odds to be a little bigger to have a E/W bet. A big player.
Cannington Brook - A very good stayer, proven over these lengthy distances and handles testing ground very well. He proved this when he finished 2nd last time out at Ffos Las over 3m1f on Heavy ground. He won before that in December at Haydock in a fairly competitive race. I'm not totally convinced that he has enough ability to beat the others here, but certainly Each Way prospects are there as the ground and distance are in his favour.
Giles Cross - A stayer, but was unconvincing in his last run at Chepstow when he pulled up rather quickly. He won this race last year and is also deemed a fine sort for the Grand National. He has pulled up on his last two starts, so he may not be on a very good run of form. Overall, he obviously has enough quality to win a race of this calibre, by my only concern is the form figures. I will make a judgement on having a bet or not, depending on the movement of the market.
Monbeg Dude - A proven stayer and has won on his last two outings over fences, beating Teaforthree in the process. Both races this horse has won have been against fairly competitive opposition, which he must be given credit for. Each Way prospects are key here, and only if there was enough value in the market, would I have a serious bet.
Lackamon - Whilst this horse is proven over the 3m mark, he has never been raced over the extra 5 furlongs which may be of some concern. On top of that, his average performances have come against weak opposition. For me, the lack of experience at this level and distance suggest that this horse may not have the quality to get heavily involved here.
Nepture Equester - A proven stayer over this sort of trip and won last time out at Wetherby over 2m6f on Heavy ground over hurdles. Over fences, he hasn't won since November 2011. His form has been well below average since then against some mediocre opposition. Personally, I don't think this horse has enough quality to win a race of this grade.
Viking Blond - This trip should be of no cocnern for a horse who has done well over this sort of trip before. Last time out at Sandown he was 2nd in a fairly competitive race over 3m 110y on Heavy ground. He has been closely compared to Monbeg Dude in the past and has always finished fairly close to him. For me, I think this is an excellent Each Way bet to have at 16/1 and above. A player.
Rigadin De Beauchene - This horse has won over this trip on his last outing at Warwick on Soft ground, against some fairly competitive opposition. However, it has been noted that this horse is best at a trip below 3m. He managed to stay on well at the end of his last outing to collect an impressive victory. I stand by my opinion in that he would relish in a shorter trip. I will look to oppose this horse today.
Well Refreshed - Once again, a proven stayer having won over this trip on his last outing at Plumton on Soft ground. Whilst his jumping has been a concern in the past, the longer trip was ideal for him and he could go well again today. He also beat Rigadin De Beachene in December, beating him by 3 1/2 lengths. I like this horse and expect him to go well today.
Lively Baron - Proven and won over this trip on his penultimate run. Whilst he has an impressive number of wins under his belt, they have come up against weak opposition and the form is pretty much ordinary. Although he has shown that he has more than enough ability to stay the trip, his inexperience against much tougher opposition may play against him today.
Trigger The Light - Won over this trip on his penultimate run at Warwick on Good ground, against some fairly tough opposition. Although it can be argued that he only won that race due to mistakes made by the other front runners. On his latest run, he ran a really good race when finishing 3rd at Haydock over 3m4f. Overall, this horse seems to put in some good performances when needed and whilst I think he may be unlikely to challenge for the win today, Each Way prospects are certainly there.
Triggerman - He is more than capable of seeing out this trip, and was only 11 lengths behind Monbeg Dude and Teaforthree at Chepstow. He only conceded defeat at the final fence that day and he clearly has plenty of ability. Last time he won was in 2011, however, and this was on Good solid ground which is unlikely today. Overall, I feel this horse has ability, but it may take a lot more from him to win again today.
Mac Aeda - A proven stayer over these sort of distances and was 3rd last time out at Haydock, being beaten by Cannington Brook by 14 lengths. He dislikes the Soft ground however, and his jumping is not always fluent when it needs to be. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.
PREDICTION - A great race with a lot of very competitive horses running. All are proven stayers over long distances, so it is likely to be about pure ability today. As far as betting is concerned, the value I've found is in TEAFORTHREE, CANNINGTON BROOK, VIKING BLOND and MONBEG DUDE, who all seem to be at bigger prices than I expected.
Here's how I am going to bet:
- TEAFORTHREE - Bet to Win
- CANNINGTON BROOK - Each Way Bet
- VIKING BLOND - Each Way Bet
- MONBEG DUDE - Each Way Bet
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