Saturday, 23 February 2013

KEMPTON 1:30PM SATURDAY 23RD FEBRUARY 2013

Filbert - Today's outing is his second start over fences. Previously, this horse had run over hurdles, with a respectable form record. On his last run out, he won at Ludlow over 2m on Soft ground. This form looks solid as it was a fairly competitive race. Both his career wins have come on Soft ground, which is something that could play into his hands today. However, he has performed poorly on Heavy ground, so it may be wise to look at the going of the ground before placing a bet. Overall, with Richard Johnson on board, this horse is guaranteed a good ride and Each Way prospects look likely.

Escort'men - His last win was in October 2010 and since then, it has been fairly unreliable and some of his runs have also been fairly poor. He was 3rd last time out at Warwick over 2m4f on Heavy ground. This was a decent, competitive race and he seemed to like this trip. 2m4f seems to be ideal trip, which is likely to be his advantage over the others. However, this horse has proved too unreliable in the past and his recent results haven't been too encouraging. I won't be having a bet.

Midnight Sail - When looking at this horse's form, it is clear to see that this horse is in the form of his life. It hasn't finished outside the top 4 since February 2010 and apart from his last run, he has finished 2nd 7 out of 8 times. He was 4th last time out at Plumpton over 2m4f on Heavy ground after making a few mistakes and failing to reproduce his best. Overall, this horse is in fantastic form and he is almost certainly worthy of an Each Way bet.

Triangular - It's been just under a year since this horse last won, and since then, it's form has been far from satisfactory. It's been used to running over this sort of trip and over Good and Soft ground. He has always struggled to keep up with the other runners pace and never looked a threat in any of these runs. In my opinion, this horse needs a revival in form, and I don't think this race is the one. I will not be having a bet.

Storming Gale - This horse last won in Feburary 2012 and since then, it has only run 4 times. His last run was at Kempton over 3m on Good-Soft ground and he finished 3rd. He looked like he was going  to win the race, but tired in the closing stages. It looks like this drop in trip will suit, although he hasn't run over this distance for over a year. Overall, this horse's form doesn't particularly stand out as any good, especially against this sort of opposition. I won't be having a bet.

Mickelson - This horse's last run was on an All Weather track and he finished 2nd, although I can't take this form into consideration. His last run over fences was in December, where he pulled up, and his last win was back in May. With AP McCoy riding today, one would think that this horse is open to improvement. However, his form is poor and I think it would take a less competitive race for a revival in form. With the Champion Jockey on board though, anything may be possible.

Millarow - This horse looks to be in the form of his life and he hasn't finished outside the top 3 since February 2012. Furthermore, all of these runs have been in fairly competitive races. On his last run, he finished 2nd. This was at Wincanton over 2m5f on Heavy ground. This suggests that he handles testing conditions well and today's trip is no problem. Overall, I really like this horse and expect it to go very well today.

Lexicon Lad - This horse's last win was in November 2011 and since then his form has been fairly respectable. However, on his last run at Cheltenham over 2m5f on Heavy ground, he failed to reproduce his best form and as this has been his only run on testing ground, it seems that he struggled with the conditions, which may play against him today. Overall, I think the going of the ground will be key for this horse as I fear that if things don't all go his way he could struggle. However, if the ground is firm, then he could be in with every chance today.

Lucy's Legend - Her last run was at Kempton over 2m on Good-Soft ground, where he finished 5th. This was a poor race, although they did go a fairly good gallop. Her wins have come against average opposition, suggesting that this tougher test may prove to be a bit too much for her. Her only advantage today is that she is low in the weights. Overall, the form figures look pleasing, but this was against weaker opposition than she faces today. I won't be having a bet.


PREDICITON - As there are only 9 runners in the race, I have chosen 2 horses which I think will be in the thick of it come the end of the race today. These selections are MIDNIGHT SAIL and MILARROW. Both of these runners are in fantastic form and I expect them both to go well today. 

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