I have now started an official Twitter account for the site: www.twitter.com/wheresmyedge
Here I will post tips on the spot (horses that I see throughout the day that I think have a chance of winning, but can't upload onto the blog) blog updates and news.
Onto the racing..
Red Inca - Ex flat horse, but is proven over hurdles. Hasn't run over hurdles since July of last year where he finished last at Market Rasen over 2m1f on Good ground. His latest run was on the All-Weather track where he finished 6th over 1m1f. Overall, the form doesn't appeal to me and he hasn't shown enough in the past to prove that he has what it takes to beat this opposition. I will not be having a bet.
Three White Socks - Ex flat and AW horse. Has only 2 starts over hurdles, which have been his last two starts. Both times he has finished 2nd in good, competitive races. His last run was at Sedgefield on Heavy ground over 2m4f. He was beaten 3 1/4 lengths and beat the next by 4. Both of these results have come on fairly testing ground, which may suit him tomorrow. Whilst it is his first time in the handicaps tomorrow, I feel that there is massive potential with this horse. A player.
Waterunder - Only four starts over hurdles and his last win was in January 2012 when he beat a odds on favorite. Since then, he has failed to make any impression on the races he has run in, finishing 9th last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground. For me, the form speaks for itself and I don't believe this horse will throw any surprises tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.
Open Day - Ridden by AP McCoy, this horse was 2nd and beaten a long way by Dark Lover last time out at Cheltenham over 2m1f. He should've got closer to the winner that day, but it just wasn't to be. This was a competitive race, however, and the form looks strong. Before that, he won at Leicester over 2m on soft ground. Again, the form looks solid and he seems to handle the testing ground well. However, my slight worry about tomorrow, is that I think he needs a bit further when coming up against tough opposition. A player, but the odds are too short for me to have a bet.
Dormouse - Followers of the blog will remember I backed this horse at Taunton in November at 13/2. AP McCoy was riding him that day and in my opinion, was the difference between winning or losing. His recent form is is respectable, although he finished 8th last time out and 35 lengths behind the eventual winner. Dormouse does like the testing ground which could play into his hands tomorrow. Overall, I've noticed that his good form always comes when McCoy is riding him. As he'll be riding a rival tomorrow, I have decided not to have a bet on this horse.
Farmer Matt - Pulled up last time at Wetherby over 3m on Soft ground, suggesting that he isn't suited for the long trip. His two career wins have come over 2m6f and 2m7f on testing ground each time. Both were competitive races and the form is clearly valid. Overall, he seems to like the testing ground and a shorter distance in trip should make him a player.
Specialagent Alfie - Fourth last time out at Kempton in a flat race, so nothing to be extracted to help me find an edge for him in this race. His hurdle form has been nothing special, with his only win coming in February last year. He finished 11th at Wincanton on his last trip over hurdles in October. I don't see him bouncing back to make a big enough impact here. I won't be having a bet.
Coffee - Hasn't won since September of last year, with both wins on Good ground. Since then, he has made no impact on his last 3 races. His last run out at Taunton where he finished 9th over 2m1f on Heavy ground, indicates that he may not be up for the challenge here, against some tough opposition.
Cloudy Bob - He was 7th last time out at Kempton on Heavy ground over 2m7f. He may have struggled with this rise in trip, as earlier performances suggest that he is more comfortable and suited around the 2m mark. He has done well in some very competitive races, so experience should be no problem. The only worry I have is that the ground may be too testing for him and will suit others better. Could be a player if certain things fall his way.
Tealissio - Fourth last time out in a Novices Hurdle and whilst the two leaders may have appeared too strong for him, I believe he will find things easier now he's handicapped. He seems to love soft ground and his form has always been consistent. If the odds are right tomorrow, I will almost certainly be having a bet.
Flaming Charmer - Before his last start, his form was pretty average, but the last run at Warwick over 2m on Soft ground was a much improved effort. His jumping was consistent and he seems to like this track. This is a much steeper challenge, however, and he may need more experience before coming a serious contender.
Jonny Delta - Ex flat horse and only two starts over hurdles. Both have been over 2m and on Soft ground, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. He travels well in these conditions and jumping is normally pretty accurate. Overall, I have no concerns with the ground and stamina test. My only doubt is that he is coming up against tough opposition. If he's 12/1 or more, however, he is definitely worth a E/W bet.
Tom O Tara - A horse who doesn't like being put under pressure, suggesting that he never really finishes particuarly well. His form is pretty average and with him finishing 6th in his last two starts against moderate oppostion, he is likely to struggle further here against tougher rivals.
Extremely So - This is a horse who loves the soft ground and testing conditions. She won last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground over 2m1f after the race was run at a strong pace. She was also 2nd before that at Taunton on Heavy ground to Home Run. However, her good performances have come against moderate opposition and she will have to dig in hard if she is to beat her rivals tomorrow. Overall, this trip certainly suits and the Heavy ground also ensures that she is likely to be there or thereabouts at the end. Player
Taroum - Ex flat horse and only 4 starts over hurdles. He was 11th last time out at Ludlow in a fairly competitive race. However, I don't see any reason why this horse should make it into the top 10 tomorrow.
In the Crowd - Ex flat horse and only 3 starts over hurdles. He won on this track over the same distance in December, and looks to stay well and handle the tricky conditions. The form looks promising for this horse and he would almost certainly be a big player if he wasn't lacking in experience.
PREDICTION - These are the type of races I love. 16 runner handicap, where lots of horses are in with a promising chance of winning. This race is no different. I fancy 3 or 4 horses here at big prices as I feel that they have been underestimated by the bookmakers. CLOUDY BOB, JONNY DELTA and EXTREMELY SO are my choices for this race. I have decided not to pick an outright winner as I feel betting E/W here is much more profitable.
OPEN DAY would be a choice of mine, but I'm afraid I don't see an edge in his pricing, whereas with the horses mentioned above, I feel that they have a solid chance of winning and they have been massively overpriced by the bookmakers.
Here I will post tips on the spot (horses that I see throughout the day that I think have a chance of winning, but can't upload onto the blog) blog updates and news.
Onto the racing..
Red Inca - Ex flat horse, but is proven over hurdles. Hasn't run over hurdles since July of last year where he finished last at Market Rasen over 2m1f on Good ground. His latest run was on the All-Weather track where he finished 6th over 1m1f. Overall, the form doesn't appeal to me and he hasn't shown enough in the past to prove that he has what it takes to beat this opposition. I will not be having a bet.
Three White Socks - Ex flat and AW horse. Has only 2 starts over hurdles, which have been his last two starts. Both times he has finished 2nd in good, competitive races. His last run was at Sedgefield on Heavy ground over 2m4f. He was beaten 3 1/4 lengths and beat the next by 4. Both of these results have come on fairly testing ground, which may suit him tomorrow. Whilst it is his first time in the handicaps tomorrow, I feel that there is massive potential with this horse. A player.
Waterunder - Only four starts over hurdles and his last win was in January 2012 when he beat a odds on favorite. Since then, he has failed to make any impression on the races he has run in, finishing 9th last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground. For me, the form speaks for itself and I don't believe this horse will throw any surprises tomorrow. I won't be having a bet.
Open Day - Ridden by AP McCoy, this horse was 2nd and beaten a long way by Dark Lover last time out at Cheltenham over 2m1f. He should've got closer to the winner that day, but it just wasn't to be. This was a competitive race, however, and the form looks strong. Before that, he won at Leicester over 2m on soft ground. Again, the form looks solid and he seems to handle the testing ground well. However, my slight worry about tomorrow, is that I think he needs a bit further when coming up against tough opposition. A player, but the odds are too short for me to have a bet.
Dormouse - Followers of the blog will remember I backed this horse at Taunton in November at 13/2. AP McCoy was riding him that day and in my opinion, was the difference between winning or losing. His recent form is is respectable, although he finished 8th last time out and 35 lengths behind the eventual winner. Dormouse does like the testing ground which could play into his hands tomorrow. Overall, I've noticed that his good form always comes when McCoy is riding him. As he'll be riding a rival tomorrow, I have decided not to have a bet on this horse.
Farmer Matt - Pulled up last time at Wetherby over 3m on Soft ground, suggesting that he isn't suited for the long trip. His two career wins have come over 2m6f and 2m7f on testing ground each time. Both were competitive races and the form is clearly valid. Overall, he seems to like the testing ground and a shorter distance in trip should make him a player.
Specialagent Alfie - Fourth last time out at Kempton in a flat race, so nothing to be extracted to help me find an edge for him in this race. His hurdle form has been nothing special, with his only win coming in February last year. He finished 11th at Wincanton on his last trip over hurdles in October. I don't see him bouncing back to make a big enough impact here. I won't be having a bet.
Coffee - Hasn't won since September of last year, with both wins on Good ground. Since then, he has made no impact on his last 3 races. His last run out at Taunton where he finished 9th over 2m1f on Heavy ground, indicates that he may not be up for the challenge here, against some tough opposition.
Cloudy Bob - He was 7th last time out at Kempton on Heavy ground over 2m7f. He may have struggled with this rise in trip, as earlier performances suggest that he is more comfortable and suited around the 2m mark. He has done well in some very competitive races, so experience should be no problem. The only worry I have is that the ground may be too testing for him and will suit others better. Could be a player if certain things fall his way.
Tealissio - Fourth last time out in a Novices Hurdle and whilst the two leaders may have appeared too strong for him, I believe he will find things easier now he's handicapped. He seems to love soft ground and his form has always been consistent. If the odds are right tomorrow, I will almost certainly be having a bet.
Flaming Charmer - Before his last start, his form was pretty average, but the last run at Warwick over 2m on Soft ground was a much improved effort. His jumping was consistent and he seems to like this track. This is a much steeper challenge, however, and he may need more experience before coming a serious contender.
Jonny Delta - Ex flat horse and only two starts over hurdles. Both have been over 2m and on Soft ground, finishing 3rd and 4th respectively. He travels well in these conditions and jumping is normally pretty accurate. Overall, I have no concerns with the ground and stamina test. My only doubt is that he is coming up against tough opposition. If he's 12/1 or more, however, he is definitely worth a E/W bet.
Tom O Tara - A horse who doesn't like being put under pressure, suggesting that he never really finishes particuarly well. His form is pretty average and with him finishing 6th in his last two starts against moderate oppostion, he is likely to struggle further here against tougher rivals.
Extremely So - This is a horse who loves the soft ground and testing conditions. She won last time out at Taunton on Heavy ground over 2m1f after the race was run at a strong pace. She was also 2nd before that at Taunton on Heavy ground to Home Run. However, her good performances have come against moderate opposition and she will have to dig in hard if she is to beat her rivals tomorrow. Overall, this trip certainly suits and the Heavy ground also ensures that she is likely to be there or thereabouts at the end. Player
Taroum - Ex flat horse and only 4 starts over hurdles. He was 11th last time out at Ludlow in a fairly competitive race. However, I don't see any reason why this horse should make it into the top 10 tomorrow.
In the Crowd - Ex flat horse and only 3 starts over hurdles. He won on this track over the same distance in December, and looks to stay well and handle the tricky conditions. The form looks promising for this horse and he would almost certainly be a big player if he wasn't lacking in experience.
PREDICTION - These are the type of races I love. 16 runner handicap, where lots of horses are in with a promising chance of winning. This race is no different. I fancy 3 or 4 horses here at big prices as I feel that they have been underestimated by the bookmakers. CLOUDY BOB, JONNY DELTA and EXTREMELY SO are my choices for this race. I have decided not to pick an outright winner as I feel betting E/W here is much more profitable.
OPEN DAY would be a choice of mine, but I'm afraid I don't see an edge in his pricing, whereas with the horses mentioned above, I feel that they have a solid chance of winning and they have been massively overpriced by the bookmakers.
PLEASE CHECK BACK LATER ON FOR MORE TIPS ON TOMORROW'S RACING.
No comments:
Post a Comment