CHEPSTOW 3:05PM SATURDAY 9TH MARCH 2013

See previous post for the 

1:55 at Chepstow

Chargen - N/R

Duke of Monmouth - This horse is proven over 3m and has performed well in highly competitive races. He was unlucky when he fell at the 2nd at Warwick in November against good opposition. His consistent form is one to be admired and he has no problem dealing with the soft ground. Overall I predict this horse to go well today and will certainly be having an Each Way bet.

Fourovakind - A novice compared to his opposition having only run over hurdles twice in his life. He is unproven over 3m but looks likely to stay the trip having put in some fairly pleasing performances over 2m4f and 2m4f 110y. Overall, given his lack of experience, I would only look to have a small Each Way bet if the market price was right.

Mauricetheathlete - I would be very surprised if this horse isn't 1st or 2nd favourite today having run well at Chepstow in January. However, having watched the race back, I think his ability has been overestimated. There are others who have much better appeal and at predicted short odds, I don't see any value in backing him.

Sarando - The form figures here indicate that this horse is fairly inconsistent. Whilst on his last run he performed well against tough opposition, there isn't sufficient evidence that he can beat some of his tougher rivals today. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Radmores Revenge - This horse is proven over 3m, although his performances over this distance have been fairly average indicating a drop in trip should suit. With tough opposition today, I fear he will find things too tough. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Joseph Mercer - N/R

Red Hot Poker - The last time this horse ran over 3m was in August 2009, which he coincidentally won. Since then he has performed poorly against moderate opposition. Today seems like a big ask for him and I feel that race against weaker opposition will suit him better. Therefore, I won't be having a bet.

Radio Nowhere - This horse isn't proven over 3m and has only raced over hurdles 3 times in his career. Last time out, he lost to Fourovakind by 8 lengths and it looks like the former will beat him again today. More exposure over this trip will benefit and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Sail and Return - N/R

Always Waining - Much like Sail and Return, this horse is proven over 3m, but has not put in the performances to go with it. He is also best run on firm ground which he is unlikely to get today. His best results have come over 2m5f and this is where I believe he should stay. I won't be having a bet.

Invicta Lake - This horse is never raced over 3m, although is fairly consistent in his performances. However, a slightly increased trip at Fakenham indicated that he is likely to struggle with the trip today. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.

William Hogarth - The form figures clearly show that he is currently struggling. Whilst proven over 3m, his performances have done nothing to suggest that he will perform well today. For that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Mystic Appeal - Firstly, this horse hasn't appeared in the top since March last year and since then he has struggled to get back on form. The form figures alone suggest that this horse will have little influence on the final outcome today.

Cardigan Island - This horse is used to running over fences, with only one start over hurdles. He has won over 3m in the past, but it is important to note that he hasn't run since October 2012. I fear that this lengthy absence won't play in his favour today and for that reason, I won't be having a bet.

Samingarry - An interesting horse with his last run being his only run over 3m. He impressed that day, finishing 3rd against some competitive opposition. He is likely to go well again today, although the ability of other runners in the race may prevent him from winning. Definite Each Way prospects.

PREDICTION - There are two horses which I believe have a great chance in the race today. SAMINGARRY and DUKE OF MONMOUTH are the two which I think that have been overestimated by the bookmakers. They are very good value and I expect them to go well today.