This is it. My first selections ever to be produced through the internet and visible to the public. Firstly, I am fully aware that there will be very few who take my advice, seeing as I am unproved and people may not want to risk their money.
I completely understand that.
That makes me more determined than ever to prove to you that I can pick winners, with a carefully devised method.
(I left out the 12:10 as this is a race which doesn't have enough form for me to make a wise judgement)
Onto our first race....
Rajdhani Express - A Nicky Henderson trained horse who won last time out at Kempton on heavy ground over 2m 4f. He ran very well here and was an easy winner in a race where his competitors didn't take much beating. He seems to handle heavy ground very well and is currently unexposed on quicker surfaces, which it may be tomorrow. The race at Kempton was also run with a decent pace and eventually turned into a stamina test, which seems no problem for this horse. RE previously fell at Taunton when he looked like he was going to pose a serious challenge to the leaders, however, with the eventual winner staying on strongly when finishing, this is far from guaranteed. As well as this, this horse has only raced around right handed circuits, Cheltenham is left handed and this may play against him in the race. To conclude, obviously a big player who is generally consistent. I have minor doubts in some areas, but in some cases, the positives out way the negatives.
Ackertac - This horse pulled up on it's last outing at Ascot over 3m on heavy ground. However, this race was very competitive, however, and after making an error six fences from the finish, he never looked like getting back into the race. He was 2nd the race before that at Ascot and showed that he does well under pressure, he travelled well on the soft ground and gained total control of the race 2 from home. The major problem I have with this horse is that he is too inconsistent. Depending on the markets tomorrow, I would be wary of backing him.
Gullinbursti - Second last time out at Exeter over 3m on heavy ground. He only conceded defeat in the run in and after a good solid round of jumping, showed that the previous effort at Haydock was not a true indicator of his ability. However, there were only 5 runners in the race and the competition didn't seem particularly high. He is used to riding in 3m races, therefore the trip should be of no concern. He was a successful winner in the later of stages of 2011, winning 3 in a row against some very healthy competition. Aside from the effort at Haydock, this does look like a promising runner, although I have concerns that the competition may be a little too high. A player.
John's Spirit - Second last time out at Sandown over 3m 110y on Soft ground. Evidence indicates that he was unlucky not to win here, after bumping into a rival. Some early mistakes in his jumping also may have cost him, but has proven that the stamina test and trip will not be a problem for him. Previously to this run, he won at Sandown on soft ground over 2m 4f. Again, jumping was inconsistent at times, but had enough in the end to defeat his opposition. AP McCoy won on him that day, and rides him again tomorrow. An experienced jockey, like him, will be able to get the best out of this horse tomorrow and as long as he sorts out his jumping, I feel that he will be hard to beat.
Battle Group - Very inconsistent in his last four starts, finishing 11/18 in his start at Warwick over 3m 1f on soft ground. He finished 36 lengths behind the leader that day and never stood a chance of winning. Before that, he fell at the fourth fence, therefore never really indicating his true ability against the other runners. Other than that, he has never particuarly stood out in any of his other races, and I will be more surprised than anyone tomorrow, if he is anywhere near the front runners.
Vino Griego - Second last time out at Ascot to Ackertac (see above), although he was only beaten by 2 lengths, so ability wise, they are pretty similar. Again, he seems to do well under pressure, but Ackertac appeared to be too strong for VG that day. He fell before that at Ascot, although he was travelling well and was tracking the leaders before falling heavily two out. Has never won a race, and for me Ackertac doesn't seem a wise bet and as the two have a similar ability, I won't be taking a further interest in this horse.
Mcmurrough - Has won his last two starts both on Heavy ground and both over 2m 4f. His latest win was at Wetherby. This may not be a true indicator of his ability however, as he took full advantage of a mistake made by his competitors and a rise in handicap for this race may be a bit to much for him. Again at Newcastle, he recovered well from a mistake made coming down the home straight to win, although he looks best to be treated over hurdles. I don't expect him to be near the front runners tomorrow.
Sizing Santiago - Third last time out to Mister Hyde at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground. Arguably, this 3m run was a little bit too hard for him and despite being a tough horse who gave the race everything he had, it wasn't quite enough to be in pole position. This run over 2m 5 should be exactly the drop back in trip he needs. This was shown on his previous run over 2m 6f when he won against some very tough competition. He is arguably at his best on quick ground and if all this plays to him tomorrow, I can't see much going wrong for him.
Ballygarvey - Won last time out at Lingfield over 2m4f on Heavy ground, beating Good Order. He won in comfortable fashion and he seems to excel in those types of conditions. He was 6th before that at Taunton and both times his jumping has been a little weak in places. He is going up against some tough opposition tomorrow and he cannot afford for his jumping to be slack. I feel a lack of experience over fences will prove to be his downfall and although he is set to win races in the future, a bit more experience against some weaker opposition will help in the long term.
Theatrical Star - A consistent front runner although hasn't won a race since October 2011. Was second last time out to Buddy Bolero at Exeter over 2m3f. Here, he had the most experience of his rivals and whilst his jumping was good, my fear is that he tends to jump to the right and as this is a left handed course for tomorrow's race, he could lose time and ground to his competitors. However, he was only beaten by a length that day and as his form is consistent against some tough opposition, I wouldn't rule out a confident run by this horse tomorrow.
Bennys Mist - Won last time out at Taunotn over 2m7f on Heavy ground, beating Kellystown Lad. He does well on left handed tracks, although he seemed to be tiring when he reached the last that day. This small drop in trip should suit the horse and if he carries this form into this race, he looks a force to be reckoned with, having beaten his nearest rival by 22 lengths. Previously at Newbury, it looked as though he had clinched victory, although certain circumstances prevented that from happening. Overall, I am very impressed with this horse and as long as the market is healthy, I will almost certainly be having a bet.
Renard D'Irlande - Fourth last time out at Doncaster over 2m3f on Good to Soft ground. The pace of the race was quick that day and that may have resulted in his down fall. He never made an impression on the leaders and therefore, was never really in the race to win it. At Wincanton he finished third and was travelling well over 2m5f before making a blunder at the 12th fence, ending his chances of the win. Overall, jumping is not as consistent as I would like and relies on a slow paced race.
Sew on Target - Won last time out at Chepstow over 2m on Heavy ground. Jumping was excellent that day and the horse travelled well and coped fantastically with the conditions. He is now open to progress and may be a threat tomorrow, although he is the top weight out of all the runners. Previously, he had fallen at Taunton over the same distance on Soft ground. However, he never looked like the winning horse and was already on the decline when falling. Overall, a horse which looks like it has a lot of promise, but maybe more experience will do it good before a race of this calibre.
PREDICTION - For me, there are some excellent runners in this race and there are others who stand less of a chance. I will be playing safe in this race and looking for the horses with long odds and have the best chance of winning. In this case, it would be SIZING SANTIAGO and BENNYS MIST, who I will be taking a strong interest in tomorrow. I will also consider JOHN'S SPIRIT, as a horse with a decent track record ridden by McCoy will surely be a test for the competitors.
As for the favorite, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, he looks like a decent horse, but the odds are too shorter price for me to have a serious bet.
I completely understand that.
That makes me more determined than ever to prove to you that I can pick winners, with a carefully devised method.
(I left out the 12:10 as this is a race which doesn't have enough form for me to make a wise judgement)
Onto our first race....
Rajdhani Express - A Nicky Henderson trained horse who won last time out at Kempton on heavy ground over 2m 4f. He ran very well here and was an easy winner in a race where his competitors didn't take much beating. He seems to handle heavy ground very well and is currently unexposed on quicker surfaces, which it may be tomorrow. The race at Kempton was also run with a decent pace and eventually turned into a stamina test, which seems no problem for this horse. RE previously fell at Taunton when he looked like he was going to pose a serious challenge to the leaders, however, with the eventual winner staying on strongly when finishing, this is far from guaranteed. As well as this, this horse has only raced around right handed circuits, Cheltenham is left handed and this may play against him in the race. To conclude, obviously a big player who is generally consistent. I have minor doubts in some areas, but in some cases, the positives out way the negatives.
Ackertac - This horse pulled up on it's last outing at Ascot over 3m on heavy ground. However, this race was very competitive, however, and after making an error six fences from the finish, he never looked like getting back into the race. He was 2nd the race before that at Ascot and showed that he does well under pressure, he travelled well on the soft ground and gained total control of the race 2 from home. The major problem I have with this horse is that he is too inconsistent. Depending on the markets tomorrow, I would be wary of backing him.
Gullinbursti - Second last time out at Exeter over 3m on heavy ground. He only conceded defeat in the run in and after a good solid round of jumping, showed that the previous effort at Haydock was not a true indicator of his ability. However, there were only 5 runners in the race and the competition didn't seem particularly high. He is used to riding in 3m races, therefore the trip should be of no concern. He was a successful winner in the later of stages of 2011, winning 3 in a row against some very healthy competition. Aside from the effort at Haydock, this does look like a promising runner, although I have concerns that the competition may be a little too high. A player.
John's Spirit - Second last time out at Sandown over 3m 110y on Soft ground. Evidence indicates that he was unlucky not to win here, after bumping into a rival. Some early mistakes in his jumping also may have cost him, but has proven that the stamina test and trip will not be a problem for him. Previously to this run, he won at Sandown on soft ground over 2m 4f. Again, jumping was inconsistent at times, but had enough in the end to defeat his opposition. AP McCoy won on him that day, and rides him again tomorrow. An experienced jockey, like him, will be able to get the best out of this horse tomorrow and as long as he sorts out his jumping, I feel that he will be hard to beat.
Battle Group - Very inconsistent in his last four starts, finishing 11/18 in his start at Warwick over 3m 1f on soft ground. He finished 36 lengths behind the leader that day and never stood a chance of winning. Before that, he fell at the fourth fence, therefore never really indicating his true ability against the other runners. Other than that, he has never particuarly stood out in any of his other races, and I will be more surprised than anyone tomorrow, if he is anywhere near the front runners.
Vino Griego - Second last time out at Ascot to Ackertac (see above), although he was only beaten by 2 lengths, so ability wise, they are pretty similar. Again, he seems to do well under pressure, but Ackertac appeared to be too strong for VG that day. He fell before that at Ascot, although he was travelling well and was tracking the leaders before falling heavily two out. Has never won a race, and for me Ackertac doesn't seem a wise bet and as the two have a similar ability, I won't be taking a further interest in this horse.
Mcmurrough - Has won his last two starts both on Heavy ground and both over 2m 4f. His latest win was at Wetherby. This may not be a true indicator of his ability however, as he took full advantage of a mistake made by his competitors and a rise in handicap for this race may be a bit to much for him. Again at Newcastle, he recovered well from a mistake made coming down the home straight to win, although he looks best to be treated over hurdles. I don't expect him to be near the front runners tomorrow.
Sizing Santiago - Third last time out to Mister Hyde at Kempton over 3m on Heavy ground. Arguably, this 3m run was a little bit too hard for him and despite being a tough horse who gave the race everything he had, it wasn't quite enough to be in pole position. This run over 2m 5 should be exactly the drop back in trip he needs. This was shown on his previous run over 2m 6f when he won against some very tough competition. He is arguably at his best on quick ground and if all this plays to him tomorrow, I can't see much going wrong for him.
Ballygarvey - Won last time out at Lingfield over 2m4f on Heavy ground, beating Good Order. He won in comfortable fashion and he seems to excel in those types of conditions. He was 6th before that at Taunton and both times his jumping has been a little weak in places. He is going up against some tough opposition tomorrow and he cannot afford for his jumping to be slack. I feel a lack of experience over fences will prove to be his downfall and although he is set to win races in the future, a bit more experience against some weaker opposition will help in the long term.
Theatrical Star - A consistent front runner although hasn't won a race since October 2011. Was second last time out to Buddy Bolero at Exeter over 2m3f. Here, he had the most experience of his rivals and whilst his jumping was good, my fear is that he tends to jump to the right and as this is a left handed course for tomorrow's race, he could lose time and ground to his competitors. However, he was only beaten by a length that day and as his form is consistent against some tough opposition, I wouldn't rule out a confident run by this horse tomorrow.
Bennys Mist - Won last time out at Taunotn over 2m7f on Heavy ground, beating Kellystown Lad. He does well on left handed tracks, although he seemed to be tiring when he reached the last that day. This small drop in trip should suit the horse and if he carries this form into this race, he looks a force to be reckoned with, having beaten his nearest rival by 22 lengths. Previously at Newbury, it looked as though he had clinched victory, although certain circumstances prevented that from happening. Overall, I am very impressed with this horse and as long as the market is healthy, I will almost certainly be having a bet.
Renard D'Irlande - Fourth last time out at Doncaster over 2m3f on Good to Soft ground. The pace of the race was quick that day and that may have resulted in his down fall. He never made an impression on the leaders and therefore, was never really in the race to win it. At Wincanton he finished third and was travelling well over 2m5f before making a blunder at the 12th fence, ending his chances of the win. Overall, jumping is not as consistent as I would like and relies on a slow paced race.
Sew on Target - Won last time out at Chepstow over 2m on Heavy ground. Jumping was excellent that day and the horse travelled well and coped fantastically with the conditions. He is now open to progress and may be a threat tomorrow, although he is the top weight out of all the runners. Previously, he had fallen at Taunton over the same distance on Soft ground. However, he never looked like the winning horse and was already on the decline when falling. Overall, a horse which looks like it has a lot of promise, but maybe more experience will do it good before a race of this calibre.
PREDICTION - For me, there are some excellent runners in this race and there are others who stand less of a chance. I will be playing safe in this race and looking for the horses with long odds and have the best chance of winning. In this case, it would be SIZING SANTIAGO and BENNYS MIST, who I will be taking a strong interest in tomorrow. I will also consider JOHN'S SPIRIT, as a horse with a decent track record ridden by McCoy will surely be a test for the competitors.
As for the favorite, RAJDHANI EXPRESS, he looks like a decent horse, but the odds are too shorter price for me to have a serious bet.
I am looking for the horses who have the most potential and can give me the best return.
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